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MLB Strikeout Props (8/3): Chris Paddack O/U 5.5 Ks

  • Our favorite MLB strikeout props for Monday (3/8) come from the 8:40 ET Dodgers @ Padres matchup
  • We’ll tell you how to play the O/U line of 5.5 strikeouts for Padres RHP Chris Paddack
  • Paddack has posted an average of 5 K’s in 5.5 IP during his first two outings

Update at 3:14 EST: This line has moved all the way to -167 on the Prop Builder since we posted it this morning, but I just discovered it at an even better price at one shop — currently -105 at Bovada. 

Our article plays are 3-1 on the year after taking our first L last week. 

We’ve got some NBA props on tap for tonight too — check them out here.

Let’s jump in.

Padres RHP Chris Paddack

Under 5.5Ks (-114 @ Prop Builder)

Paddack has had slightly mixed results through two starts:

  • vs ARI: 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks
  • vs SFG: 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks

He gets his toughest test tonight against a Dodgers lineup that destroys RHP while maintaining a disciplined swinging-strike rate and keeping their strikeouts to a minimum.

  • Their 19.9% kRate against RHP is best of any team’s matchup today
  • Same goes for their wOBA, best on the slate at a whopping .341
  • ISO is tops as well for this slate at .203

That kind of power, combined with, a stingy kRate, is going to make it tough for Paddack to stack up big K numbers against LA.

Adding to Paddack’s potential woes, the Dodgers practice solid discipline at the plate with Sw/Str % of 20.5% last year.

This year, they have just 81 total strikeouts through 10 games, second-best in the majors.

mlb strikeout props

Over his last 20 starts, and specifically his last 10, Paddack’s ERA surged well above his K%.

All of these indicators point to signs of pitcher regression, especially in difficult matchups.

All quantitative and qualitative analyses point towards his under with a semi-high line of 5.5 and a lineup that mashes against RHP.

I’d play this line to -125.

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