We’ve got MNF Props for Broncos Chargers, and it sets up to be another busy game for one of the league’s most well-fed WRs, Courtland Sutton.
Denver hasn’t faced a pass-happy team like the Chargers yet, and as 4.5-point underdogs, they’re likely to be chasing the game once again, which means plenty of targets for their best WR.
Let’s jump in.
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Courtland Sutton Over 4.5 Receptions (-135 MGM)
It wasn’t supposed to be this way.
Jerry Jeudy and Sutton were presumed to be co-No. 1 receivers heading into the season, but Sutton has clearly been Batman to Jeudy’s Robin.
He’s lapping Jeudy in every major statistical counting category, every Share Metric (Air Yards Share, Target Share, Rec Yards Share), and he’s been the more efficient player in terms of Targets per Route Run (TPRR) and Yards per Route Run (YPRR), and Yards per Target.
For those who are into plain old hit rates, Sutton has hit this number in four straight games, averaging 5.8 receptions in that span.
I like to analyze props from a market-based perspective as well, and from that point of view, this prop looks just as good. Look at it this way:
- Coming into this week, Sutton was tied with Ja’Marr Chase and Dionate Johnson for the 11th-best Target Share in the league (28%)
- Sutton has more receptions than Johnson
- Chase and Diontae had respective lines of 6.5 and 5.5 receptions this week
- Tonight’s game total of 46 is higher or equal to both of the other games
From that perspective, a line of 4.5 receptions of Sutton seems a touch short.
Any way you slice it, Sutton has been a top receiver this year, despite sub-par play from his QB Russell Wilson, and he looks undervalued here.
Courtland Sutton ranks:
7th In RecYds
3rd in Air Yards
6th in Air Yard Share
11th in Target Share
11th in Targets pic.twitter.com/hDxVgylSUz
— Bet the Prop (@bettheprop) October 17, 2022
The Los Angeles secondary has been softer than we’ve seen in recent years, allowing the 9th-most targets to WRs (21/game) and the 10th-most receptions (13.4).
That’s partly due to the fact that the Chargers themselves are a pass-heavy team that also plays fast, which puts their opponents in a position where they have to do the same.
Teams playing the Chargers are passing 64% of the time this year, tied for the 4th-highest mark in the league.
Projections across the industry are finding consensus to this play, ranging from 5.0 to 6.0 receptions.
We like Sutton to stay busy tonight in a game script that should see the Broncos forced to the air in order to stay close. Play this down to -140.