Sometimes you have to work hard to find even a single K prop worth a play, and sometimes they’re served up on a platter. This falls into the latter category, and we’ll keep it short and sweet.
*** Note this is an early 3:10 ET start***
We’re coming off a nice, sweaty win on JA Happ last night, so let’s stay hot.
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Thursday K Props (8/5)
Rockies RHP Anthony Senzatela (-138 @ FanDuel)
A lot of our plays come down to numbers, but this one comes down to a guy coming off Covid who is very likely to be limited in length.
The Rockies righty tested positive coming out of the All Star Break and hasn’t pitched since, making it nearly a month since he’s been stretched out.
“I went through two days of body aches — that’s all I had,” Senzatela said. “I thank God for that. A lot of people have died of that, but I had just two days.
Senzatela hasn’t thrown much since then. He pitched four innings in a minor league rehab start on Saturday, striking out three. That was followed by a 20-pitch bullpen session earlier this week to “build arm strength.”
There’s no official word on a potential pitch count, but there’s almost zero chance he gets his normal load here.
Then you look at the fact that every single line (save one) Senzatela has been assigned this year has been an O/U 3.5, and you wonder if the traders who set this 4.5 today even did a simple google search before posting it.
The matchup vs the Cubs is a bad one for us, and he’s still going to get there sometimes.
But setting his line at his season-high when he hasn’t pitched in a month coming off Covid makes no sense, and we have to fire.
We’d play the 4.5 down to -150 and would also play it if it moves to 3.5.