Mitch Keller is dealing to start the season, and he’s a value target today as we look to stay hot on MLB K props.
Betting overs is rare when it comes to K props, but when we do, it’s often on guys who are seeing an increase in pitch velocity that is not being reflected in the betting market. Let’s jump in on Mitch Keller.
We’re dealing on MLB K Props too, starting the season off hot at 66%, and we’re now hitting 67% over our last 200+ MLB bets. — Join us here to get all our picks.
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MLB K Props for 4/26
Mitch Keller OVER 4.5 Ks (-110 @ FanDuel)
Line notes: We released this to our subscribers at +122 this morning but still like it down to -125.
Keller’s fastball velocity is up a full 2.5 mph from last year, and his breaking stuff is all up 1-2 mph. His whiff rate is also up on those pitches. He’s dealing.
The early results didn’t reflect that, as he only hit 4 Ks in each of his first two starts.
Let’s break down his starts:
- The first was against a hard-to-K Cardinals lineup — he was also was on a pitch count, and for what it’s worth he did go over on his given line of 3.5
- He then suffered some bad luck versus the Nats where he gave up seven soft singles, four of which were into a hole from the shift or on broken bats
- His average exit velocity on those hits was the third-lowest for any pitcher over the past year
- Start No. 3, though, was vs these same Brewers, and he racked up 7 Ks there on just 75 pitches
It’s the Brewers again today, and they have the 7th-worst wRC+ vs RHP and the sixth-worst KRate.
They’re also one of the few teams that have forced more overs than unders from opposing pitchers in the early going, allowing 10 of the 14 starters (71%) they’ve faced to go over their closing K prop line.
Conclusion
With Keller touching 99 on the gun this year he’s getting more whiffs than ever, but this line is lower than a lot of what he got back in 2021 when his stuff wasn’t nearly as good. It’s a nice buy now before he gets too pricey.
