It’s been an inauspicious return to the lineup for Lance Lynn, an aging ace who’s certainly seen better days and has been bleeding runs since his return from the DL in mid-June. His pitching Outs prop highlights our best MLB props from Friday’s slate (7/1).
Get the rest of our daily MLB prop picks by joining us here — we’re 117-83 (59%) for +23.6 units on the season, and you can find all of our tracking here.
Let’s dive into our favorite MLB prop from today.
Best MLB Props for Today (7/1)
Lance Lynn Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105 @ DraftKings)
This would have been a good line last year, but there are plenty of reasons to doubt that Lynn can be as effective today.
It was a long wait for his debut this year. The 35-year-old tore his meniscus in training camp and missed all of the spring until finally being activated for his first start on June 13th.
The good news is he appears fully stretched out, going 109 pitches in his most recent start against Baltimore. The bad news is that, albeit in a small sample of just 16 innings, Lynn is posting some of the worst numbers of his career:
- xBA of .311 (up from career average of .226)
- xSLG of .483 (.368 career)
- 47.5% HardHit% (36% career)
- 1.44 WHIP (1.27 career)
In all, he’s allowed 11 ERs in three starts for a 6.19 ERA, a far cry from his 2.69 ERA last year.
Most concerning is Lynn’s drop in velocity. His go-to pitch is the 4 Seam Fastball, and that’s down more than 1 MPH, going from 94 MPH last year to an average of 92.9 this year. 
Obviously, his numbers are going to improve, but the road to recovery tends to be a little longer when you are pushing 35 years of age.
The Matchup
Even if he finds his velocity and gets back to the old Lance Lynn today, we have the benefit of a good matchup to fall back on.
The Giants aren’t the most powerful lineup, but they are a top-10 offense by wRC+, and as importantly, they are one of the most patient teams at the plate:
- Average the third-most pitches/plate appearance (3.99)
- Third-best walk rate (9.8%)
- Fourth-lowest First Pitch Swinging% (27.3%)
- Fourth-lowest Percentage of Pitches Swung At (45.4%)
Just two of the last 10 starters to face San Franciso have hit 18 outs.
Conclusion
This looks like a legacy line for Lynn, but he’s still shaking off the rust and gets a tough matchup as well.
We’d play it down to -125.
