The NFL’s third week begins tonight with Thursday Night Football, and it’s time again to take a look at the best Monkey Knife Fight Props for the Titans vs Jaguars.
The games at Monkey Knife Fight (MKF) are a different twist on props, offering contests such as fantasy over/unders, and spreads on a player’s yards and receptions totals. They’ve added tons of options since last season, including over/under on fantasy points. I’ll be breaking down spots that offer value throughout the regular season and playoffs.
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Titans vs Jaguars Monkey Knife Fight Props
Here’s how to find the different game options at MKF — if you look under the giant football, you’ll see an option to filter the available games. Clicking that and changing it to ‘ALL’ will unlock every prop available for your selected game.
We looked at some fantasy props for Thursday Night Football last week, and we’re going back to the fantasy well again tonight with these MKF plays.
The Picks
- Dede Westbrook under 10.5 fantasy points [Game: Over / Under]
- Leonard Fournette over 13.5 fantasy points [Over / Under]
- Leonard Fournette +1.5 FPts vs Marcus Mariota [Rapidfire]
If you’ve read any of my previous MKF analysis, you have seen that I much prefer to take unders because they hit far more often in prop betting. Tonight’s game is expected to be very low scoring, with the total down to 38 after opening at 41.
This means that the projections MKF props are both set so low, it is tough to find value just betting unders. I still don’t hate the strategy of just expecting an ugly game and picking correlated unders across the board, but I’ve found a handful of specific plays that look +EV tonight.
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Dede Westbrook
Over/Under 10.5 Fantasy Points
The Pick
- Dede Westbrook under 10.5 fantasy points
This is a play I’m tailing from our Premium Slack Channel, posted by John Lapinski (@FF_SkiBall).
Westbrook has gone under this in two of three games against Tennessee. He was expected to be the top WR for Jacksonville this season but has actually been way behind both D.J. Chark and Chris Conely so far. Westbrook only has 6 receptions for 33 yards while Chark and Conely each have 10+ receptions for 170+ yards.
Leonard Fournette
Over/Under 13.5 Fantasy Points and +1.5 FPts vs Marcus Mariota
The Picks
- Leonard Fournette over 13.5 fantasy points
- Leonard Fournette +1.5 FPts vs Marcus Mariota
Fournette has gone over this in two of three games against the Titans.
While they are slight underdogs, he is at home where RBs tend to perform better. He’s fallen just short of this number in both games this year and not yet found the end zone, but he has gotten six targets with four receptions in each game and is the clear bell-cow back for the Jaguars.
The main reason I’m targeting this over is that he is projected between 17 and 19.6 FPts tonight, giving us huge value on over 13.5.
It is for this same reason that we are taking him as an underdog +1.5 fantasy points vs Mariota. The Titans QB is projected for only 14.2 – 15.4 FPts in this division matchup. He averages only 10.3 FPts per game against Jacksonville, with each of his last two games coming in at 9.1 and 5.8 FPs. Even if Fournette can’t get past 13.5, he could still smoke Mariota in this H2H.
Bonus Leans
- Delanie Walker +0.5 FPts vs Dede Westbrook [Rapidfire] (Walker has slightly better projection. Outperformed so far and better TD equity.
- Chris Connely +4.5 Yards vs Delanie Walker [Rapidfire]
These leans are a little contrary to each other, given that one is backing Walker and the other is fading him. It might make sense to pick just one to avoid the negative correlation. The veteran TE has a slightly better projection than Westbrook who we are fading anyway. Walker has more TD equity, with two already this year. It is only a lean because we are fading Mariota and the projections are close.’
Connely and Walker have very similar projections also, but Connely has the yardage upside in my eyes, and here we are getting him as an underdog. They are both projected around 47 yards, but Connely has bested Walker in both games so far by at least 34 yards.
I think the wrong player is favored in this H2H.
Picks Recap
- Dede Westbrook under 10.5 fantasy points.
- Leonard Fournette over 13.5 fantasy points.
- Leonard Fournette +1.5 FPts vs Marcus Mariota.
Also be sure to check out our favorite straight-up props for Titans Jaguars.
