We’re back again with an more head to head PGA props, this time looking at an some of the best Arnold Palmer Invitational bets.
This week we’re in Florida at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge, which is a par 72 course that will play about 7,400 yards.
The Matchup
The head to head that caught my eye is Tyrrell Hatton against Rafa Cabera-Bello. Even though he’s a little bit chalky, Cabrera-Bello looks like the clear play here.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Rafa Cabrera-Bello | -120 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +100 |
The Pick: Rafa Cabrera-Bello (-120)
Course History
One knock against the favorite is that he hasn’t played at Bay Hill before, so we don’t have much to go on there.
As for Hatton, he played well here to a 4th-place finish two years ago, but overall, he’s struggled to finish inside of the top 70 on this course. I don’t put a ton of stock into course history unless it’s completely overwhelming for a player at a certain course.
The Englishman hasn’t exactly been can’t miss here, so I’m calling that a wash.
Head to Head Results
So far this year, Cabrera Bello and Hatton have played the same course on the same day on six occasions, and Hatton has only managed to beat Cabrera-Bello once.That would put the Spaniard’s odds on a given day at -500.
Looking at just a few events can skew the picture, though. If we zoom out to the start of last season, they played 15 events together on the PGA Tour. Again, the Spaniard came out on top in a majority of the contests, going 8-4-3.
Historically speaking, that puts Cabrera-Bello’s odds of winning this matchup at at -200, so we’re getting some decent value here, even though he’s the favorite.
While I don’t see the odds on this matchup moving much before tee off on Thursday, I’d play the Spaniard here all the way to -130 odds.
