We are just days away from the 2019 Masters Tournament, and we begin our look at the Masters best bets with one head-to-head matchup that pops out from the model.
All of the books have released about triple the amount of options as usual, and it seems overwhelming to sift through them all. You’re in luck, because that’s what we do here at Bet The Prop so you don’t have to. After last week’s H2H win, our posted H2H props are now 14-2-2 over the last four events.
If you want access to all our Masters H2H picks (currently 20 and counting), along with our outrights, Top 10s, and Top 20s, join our premium Slack channel.
The course at Augusta National is a par 72 that plays around 7,400 yards. I won’t bore you with all of the details, though, because there’s a matchup that’s leaping off the page at me. Also be sure to check out one of my favorite outright bets for this event.
Getting plus odds on a guy like Paul Casey seems like a no-brainer this week. The model gave Casey a 0.9 compared to Brooks Koepka’s 0.7 which is a significant edge when getting plus odds.
|Implied Win Probability
The Pick: Paul Casey +100
Historical Head to Head Results
Since the start of 2016, Casey and Korpeka have faced off against each other over a sample of 160 rounds.
During that span, Casey is 73-66-21 against Koepka, which would put his odds around -110. This is a full tourney bet, though, and when we expand that out, Casey is 22-19-13 over Koepeka, which, again, would put his odds right at -110.
That’s over the long term though and things can change. This season, Casey is 2-1 against Koepka in tournaments and 5-5 in rounds.
The course fit at Augusta is simply better for Casey than Koepka. Casey has beaten Koepka heads up in all three of the Masters Tournaments that they’ve both appeared in.
Not only that, but he’s 9-3 against him in rounds as well, so it hasn’t been particularly close. Over the past four years, Casey hasn’t finished outside of 15th place and has three finishes inside of the top six.
Koepka didn’t play last year due to injury but he only has one finish inside of the Top 20 in his last three starts.
Koepka spiked at the Honda Classic with a great approach game, but has lost strokes on approach in his past two starts. He also lost strokes off the tee at The PLAYERS Championship. That combination doesn’t bode well when going up against a guy like Casey who’s gained strokes on approach in 13 of his last 14 events.
This is a great value at plus odds, and I’d play Casey all the way to -110 in this matchup.