- We’ve got Bam Adebayo props tonight on this loaded Tuesday NBA slate (5/11)
- The Heat are on the road against the Boston Celtics — tip-off at 7:30 PM EST
- Miami are 1-point favorites in a game with a 225-point total
With only six days remaining in the NBA regular season, we’re finally seeing meaningful games and heavy stakes. Perhaps the most important game on tonight’s slate belongs to Miami and Boston. The Heat are currently in 6th place in the East, while the Celtics are in 7th place and only two games back of Miami. If the Heat can win, they will avoid the play-in tournament, while also owning the tiebreaker against Boston.
My favorite prop from this game belongs to Bam Adebayo. I believe the Heat will look to feed their talented big man, and I love how he matches up against an under-manned Celtics frontcourt.
It was an easy cash on John Collins last night, so let’s stay hot.
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Bam Adebayo Props (5/11)
Over 17.5 Points (-116 @ FanDuel)
Bam has been a model of consistency this season, having never scored under 18.7 points per game or more than 20.2 points in any month this season:
- December: 19 PPG
- January: 20.2 PPG
- February: 18.9 PPG
- March: 18.7 PPG
- April: 18.8 PPG
The former Kentucky Wildcat is a matchup nightmare for opposing big men. Bam likes to operate out of the high post where he has a reliable mid-range shot if opposing defenders decide to sag off of him. When opponents try to take away his mid-range shot, Adebayo is skilled enough to beat his defender off the dribble and finish at the rim with contact.
I also like how the Heat choose to deploy the talented big man. Bam plays a big chunk of his minutes against opposing teams’ second units, where the Heat like to run their offense through him.
Starting centers have a hard enough time as it is trying to slow Bam down, opposing benches don’t have much of a chance at all.
The Matchup
Adebayo will face a Celtics team he just lit up on Sunday for 20 points with eye-popping efficiency shooting 5 of 5 from the field. Bam got to the line 11 times and cashed in on 10 freebies. I expect Bam to look for his shot tonight and if Boston adjusts by collapsing the paint, we might see more mid-range attempts.
The Celtics will also be without starting center Robert Williams, which will thrust Tristan Thompson into the starting lineup while Luke Kornet and Grant Williams will be picking up minutes at center for Boston. That’s a defensive mismatch to put it lightly, and Bam should have a field day against them.
Conclusion
I love Bam to be aggressive tonight in a pivotal must-win game for Miami. His 17.5 line is a point and a half shy of his season average which makes little sense to me. I will gladly accept the discount, and I have Bam penciled in for 20 points.
