We’re betting Alex Pierce props for tonight’s MNF matchup between the Colts and Steelers. His Colts come in as 2.5-point favorites in a game with a paltry point total of 39.5.
After a hot start to his NFL career, the second-round draft pick out of Cincinnati has cooled off lately with the change to a new QB and a new coach. Let’s jump in.
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Pierce splashed as a rookie out of the gate, averaging 53.3 yards on 5.4 targets over his first 7 games. Since then, he’s commanded just 4 targets per game, and the yards have dipped to 17 on average.
The biggest thing for us here is that this line is set a full 23% higher than last week’s line of 29.5 yards. That’s a huge assumption by the oddsmakers that his bigger role is here to stay, but we see it as more of a fragile situation. In Week 10, Pierce ran routes on just 63% of dropbacks, while Parris Campbell ran 90%. Then last week, those numbers basically flipped.
It wouldn’t be surprising to their roles as No 2 flip back and forth on a game-to-game basis.
This specific spot might not be the best for Pierce with TJ Watt back at full strength. Pierce does not run a very diverse route tree, at least not effectively; it’s almost all deep stuff.
The Colts have de-prioritized the deep plays with Matt Ryan back and Jeff Saturday coaching, and while the Steelers coverage unit is terrible, they can get to the QB, and that should make it difficult to play to Pierce’s strengths in the deep game.
Our friends at Run the Sims project this at a median result of 29 yards.
We would have passed on this prop had they made it 29 yards again this week like last week, but with the significant line adjustment, along with the low game total and the fact that the Colts are favorites, we ride.