- Our best strikeout props for Tuesday (7/28) come from the 6:40 EST game between the Cubs and Reds
- We’ll tell you how to play the O/U line of 4.5 strikeouts for Cubs starter Alec Mills
- Mills is starting in place of injured SP Jose Quintana
Last night’s free prop play was an easy hit, although we didn’t expect Mike Foltynewicz to be so bad that he’d get demoted to the minors after the game. Tonight’s prop play won’t be as easy, but we see plenty of long-term value here. Let’s jump in.
Overall, our best strikeout props are 8-5 for +2.28 units. You can get all our MLB daily plays props for free until August 6th. Details below.
Cubs RHP Alec Mills
Under 4.5 Ks (+105 @ DraftKings)
Mills has posted excellent kRates of 32.4% and 27.6% over the past two seasons, but there are some caveats:
- A small sample of just 19 Major League appearances
- He’s mostly been used as a reliever
- He’s done most of his damage against RHBs
Tonight, MIlls will make a pinch-start for Jose Quintana (thumb) against the Cincinnati Reds, a lineup that currently projects to send four left-handed batters to the plate. That’s significant because Mills looks like a different guy against lefties, getting hit for power and average with a kRate that is almost 15% lower.
| K% | wOBA | ISO | |
| vs LHB | 19.40% | 0.416 | 0.214 |
| vs RHB | 34.10% | 0.235 | 0.128 |
LHB Joey Votto is a good example of the kind of bat Mills should struggle against — Votto strikes out 25% of the time against LHPs but just 18.3% of the time against RHPs, while also hitting for a lot more power.
It’s a similar story for the fifth man in the order — LHB Josh VanMeter strikes out 28.6% of the time against lefties but only 20.7% against righties.
I’m expecting a volatile performance from Mills. He could get hard – as the Reds often do against RHPs – and chased early on, or he could ring up a bunch of Ks early.
At +105, we can afford to live with a little volatility. Ultimately, he’s not a good bet to go deep against this lineup, making this a +EV bet in the long run.
The worst price I’d play on this prop of U4.5 is -118.
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