- Our best MLB strikeout props come from the 6:40 pm EST matchup between the Braves and Rays
- We’ll examine the O/U line of 4.5 strikeouts for Atlanta RHP Mike Foltynewicz
- Foltynewicz has averaged 87 pitches over his last five starts — will he be on a short leash tonight?
MLB isn’t letting a Covid outbreak on the Miami Marlins spoil the restart party, and neither are we. We’ve got another full card of MLB strikeout props teed up for today, including this one featuring a declining Foltynewicz.
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We hit our article play the last time out, so let’s stay hot with another under.
Braves RHP Mike Foltynewicz
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
We locked this number in for our chat subscribers when the markets opened — at the time of publication, it’s still available at DraftKings (-109), which is still a solid value play.
The Braves fourth man up in the starting rotation sports significant splits vs left-handed batters (LHB), striking out 5% fewer batters and yielding 5% less soft contact.
| K% | ISO | Soft% | |
| vs LHB | 18.70% | 0.223 | 15.8 |
| vs RHB | 23.70% | 0.208 | 20.9 |
That’s significant against a left-heavy Tampa Bay Rays side, which currently projects to field five LHBs.
Splits aside, we’ve seen a general downward trend from Foltynewicz over the past few years — he’s been striking out fewer batters and getting hit harder since midway through 2018.
In all, Folty has gone from a pitcher who strikes batters at a rate in the high 20s, to a very average rate of 21.5% of his last 20 starts.
The Rays have a reputation of a free-swinging team, ranking 22nd in kRate last year (24%), but they didn’t tag any of the Blue Jays starting pitchers for more than four strikeouts (3, 4, 4) in their opening series.
Pitch counts played a part in those low totals, and could they again today. The Braves have been keeping a short leash on their starters, giving them pitch counts of 69, 67, and 82 over the first three games, and there’s no reason to expect they’ll give Foltynewicz any more leash than that.
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