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FedEx St. Jude Invitational Picks: H2H With Adam Hadwin

After an easy win last week in this space, we’re back at it again with some best WGC – FedEx St. Jude Invitational picks.

When you see WGC, a couple of things should come to mind. The first is that we’re talking about – mostly – the cream of the crop. The second is that we’re dealing with a no-cut event. For our purposes, no cuts mean we might see slightly more pushes, but it doesn’t change our approach. 

This week’s event is being held at TPC Southwind which is a Par 70 that plays right around 7,240 yards. The course features:

  • 94 Bunkers
  • 10 Water Hazards
  • Bermudagrass Greens

The books have Adam Hadwin (+109) as an underdog to Corey Conners (-130) this week, but I don’t. 

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Tale of the Tape

Over the past year, Hadwin and Conners are essentially even in total Strokes Gained.

The issue for Conners is that when his short game goes wrong, it goes horribly wrong. In measured rounds, Conners gains strokes on the field only about one-third of the time in either short game category.

Historically, it’s been more difficult to hit greens in regulation at TPC Southwind than the average tour stop. Hadwin has the better short game to make up for those inevitable missed greens. 

Head to Head

St. Judes picks
Simulated range of outcomes for finishing position.
  • Across their careers, Hadwin holds an impressive 65-48-10 record in rounds against Conners
  • Over their last 10 common events, Hadwin is 7-3 against Conners
My Pick: Hadwin over Conners, +109 @ BetOnline

As you can see above, my simulator is anticipating similar results this week at TPC Southwind, and I would pay up to -110 for Hadwin in this head-to-head.


For the Rest of my St. Jude Invitational Picks…

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