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Monday’s Best NBA Prop Bet: Dennis Smith, O/U 18.5 Points

We have a nice Monday Night slate with nine games on tap, and I’m going right back to Dennis Smith in this spot for our best NBA prop bet of the day.

There’s almost no choice after being served up another soft Smith line for tonight’s game.

We were on his over three days ago when he put up 31 points – nearly doubling up on the prop betting line of 16.5 – against the Detroit Pistons (27th in DEFF vs PGs).

Now he gets a juicy matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

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Knicks Point Guard Dennis Smith

Over 18.5 Points (-114 @ Betonline)

Since being acquired by the Knicks, Smith has played full minutes in three of four games, and in them:

  • He shot 11-25 from the field for 25 points in 39:46 mins vs DET
  • 9-15 with 19 free throw attempts (FTA) for 31 points in 34:50 mins vs DET
  • 4-17 for 13 points vs TOR in 30:24 mins (11th in DEFF)

That averages out to 23 points per game on 19 shots in 35 minutes per game. He also has a team-high 32.1% usage rate with the Knicks while averaging 21.24 points per 36.

Now he gets to face the Cleveland Cavaliers, who rank last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They also allow the fifth-most points per game (24.9) and highest FG% to opposing point guards on the season. As a team, the Cavaliers also rank last in defensive efficiency.

Another sweetener to this matchup is that the Cavaliers starting PG, Colin Sexton, ranks 94th out of 95 in defensive real plus minus (DRPM), while the primary backup, Jordan Clarkson ranks 93rd. Their other two PGs, Brandon Knight and Matthew Dellavedava, are ranked 47th and 56th in this category.

I’m feeling another 20+ point performance tonight from Smith.

He’s getting the minutes, and the matchup aligns perfectly for him against Colin Sexton.

This number is still playable up to -130.

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