We’re back at it this week as with some John Deere Classic best bets as the tour heads to Illinois.
TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 that plays right at 7,100 yards. We have a bunch of really tight head to heads on the board, but there’s some value on Sungjae Im (+100) at plus odds vs. Lucas Glover (-120).
We’re coming off an easy win last week as everything went according to plan in the Hidecki Matsuyama v Jason Day, and overall our article H2Hs have been on a solid roll in recent weeks.
Sungjae Im >Lucas Glover (+100)
Recent Form & Course History
Overall, Im has gone through some hot and cold streaks over the course of the season. He is in the middle of a heater right now, though, stringing together five-straight cuts including finishes inside of the Top 21.
In each of his past four starts, Im has had at least three rounds in the 60s. He’s a great upside play this week if he can continue to string birdies together like that. The South Korean has no history here — it’s his first time playing the event.
Glover is coming off of a seventh-place finish in a similarly weak field last week, but he hasn’t been terribly sharp. That was his first made cut in his past three starts.
He did hit a fair amount of greens, but it was his putter that was most impressive last week. Glover gained 6.1 strokes — the best putting performance in our database.
He has had mixed results at TPC Deere Run making just 2-of-6 cuts.
Model Results
Im’s raw score from the model this week puts him in the -1.5 to -1 group. Historically, that group has hit the Top 10 just under 20% of the time and Top 20 around 35% of the time.
Glover falls in the -1 to -0.5 group, though. That group has finished in the Top 10 and Top 20, 13% and 25% of the time respectively.
