We’re back on the PGA grind this week looking at some 3M Open best bets. It’s a course we’ve never seen before in TPC Twin Cities — a Par 71 course that plays over 7,400 yards.
We’re looking all the way up at the top of the field for our matchup this week as Hideki Matsuyama takes on Jason Day. There’s plenty of value in taking Matsuyama here against Day.
We’re coming off a tough beat in our last piece, as Cameron Tringale blew a significant lead on Brendan Steele.
Hideki Matsuyama > Jason Day (-105)
Recent Form
Matsuyama is on an epic made-cuts made streak and has been striking it exceptionally well.
Over that span of 14 starts, he’s hit fewer than 60% of greens in regulation (GIR) on two occasions. Both of those events, he hit over 58% of greens. As his putter goes, Matsuyama goes, and he seems to have sorted out some of his putting woes and at least gotten himself back to neutral.
Day has played well this year, making nine of 11 cuts. One of those missed cuts came a couple of events back at the Memorial Tournament.
Through much of his career, Day has relied on a stellar short game to save him when his ball striking wasn’t there, and 2019 is no exception. He’s struggled to break 60% of GIR in four of his past five starts.
Head to Head Results
On a round-by-round basis over the past year, Day holds the edge 30-26-7 in rounds that they’ve both played the same course on the same day. Across those 18 tournaments, though, they are tied 8-8-2.
Narrowing down to the last six months, Matsuyama takes the lead with a 4-2-2 record against the Australian. That would put his fair odds at -200.
Model Results
Hideki got a raw score of -1.82 compared to Day’s -1.29.
Golfers that fall between -1.5 and -2 like Matsuyama outperform golfers in Day’s group (-1.5 to -1) at a 60% clip. That would make Matsuyama’s fair odds -150 based on those results.
I’m liking the underdog here and would be willing to bet Matsuyama down to -135.
