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Friday’s Best NBA Props (11/15): Danilo Gallinari, More

We have eight games on the NBA calendar which makes for an eventful Friday Night slate, and we’re back with more best NBA props.

In this piece, I’ll lay out the case for why I’m looking to target Al Horford and his defensive pressure, T.J Warren, who is in a great spot tonight against the Houston Rockets, and Duke product Luke Kennard against a really bad defensive team in the Charlotte Hornets.

My YTD Record on NBA Player Props:

  • Article Picks : 15-9 (62.5%)
  • Slack Chat Subscriber Picks: 20-8 (71.4%)
  • Total : 35-17 (67%)

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My prop pieces are coming in hot, going 3-0 on Monday night, then 3-0 again last night. So let’s stay ablaze in this space. 

Best NBA Props for Friday (11/15)

Oklahoma City Thunder Forward Danilo Gallinari

Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)

The Philadelphia 76ers have had a weird season.

They started off by being last undefeated team standing, and since their first loss, everything has fallen apart. Joel Embiid was suspended two games, and they were recently blown out against the Magic. Their defense, a staple for them over the last two seasons, looks lost.

The one constant, dependable rock has been Al Horford.

In Wednesday’s piece, I discussed how Horford has shut down stretch fours on the season. Here’s how Horford ranks when guarding a stretch four:

Points Rebounds 3PM Overall Rank
17.7 (4th) 9.2 (3rd) 2.4 (13th) 2nd

Horford ranks second overall defensively when guarding the stretch four spot.

That’s Gallinari’s position, and he’s priced up today, which opens up tremendous value for us. Gallinari has gone over the 25.5 PRA target twice in his last seven games:

Opponent Points Rebounds Assists Total
@ Pacers 14 4 0 18
Vs Bucks 14 7 3 24
Vs Warriors 21 5 3 29
@ Spurs 27 5 1 33
Vs Magic 16 4 2 22
Vs Pelicans 16 4 0 20
Vs Blazers 15 6 1 22

This will be among his toughest matchups of the year, so we’ll happily take this inflated number.

Indiana Pacers Forward T.J. Warren

Over 17.5 Points (-114)

There are three significant stats pointing us towards the over on 17.5 points tonight:

  • Warren is averaging 23.16 Points Per Game his last six games
  • Jeremy Lamb has missed the last four and will miss tonight which has contributed to the recent spike in scoring for Warren
  • The Houston Rockets give up 24.7 Points Per Game to the Forwards (29th)

Warren has hit the targeted 17.5 points in seven out of his last nine, partly because he’s taking a ton of shots, leading the team with 15.5 per game over his last six.

The Rockets are missing a key defensive piece tonight as starting Center Clint Capella will be OUT tonight with a concussion.

Since 2017, when Capella is off the floor, the Rockets are giving up six points more per game, and their defensive rating goes up to 116.1 per game. In comparison, the worst defensive team in the NBA right now currently has a 117.2 defensive rating.

Warren is in a great spot tonight, and his line is mispriced.

Detroit Pistons Guard Luke Kennard

Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)

Kennard finds himself in a great matchup tonight against the 18th-ranked defensive team in the league. The Hornets also rank 138th out of a possible 150 in defensive rating against the Guard position, clearly a weak spot on their team.

Kennard has crushed the 23.5 target his last 6 games:

Opponent Points Rebounds Assists Total
@ Heat 22 1 5 28
Vs Timberwolves 25 7 2 34
@ Pacers 29 6 5 40
Vs Knicks 12 9 7 28
@ Wizards 24 4 5 33
Vs Nets 24 3 4 31

Blake Griffin is returning for his second game this year and is impacting Kennard’s line, but that’s likely to affect Andre Drummond more than Kennard.

In a small sample size, Kennard’s numbers haven’t been greatly affected by Griffin being on or off the court.

In / Out Points Rebounds Assists FGA 3PA Usage
Griffin IN .52 .21 .10 .37 .10 18
Griffin OUT .56 .11 .12 .41 .22 22

Even with Griffin in, Kennard still mostly maintained his averages. He scored about the same amount of points per minute, rebounded the ball more with Griffin in, and his assists numbers were also nearly identical.

Kennard has crushed the 23.5 PRA number his last six games and we have him projected to do the same again tonight.

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