The season finale between the Colts and Titans is effectively a playoff game, and we’re breaking down the best Sunday Night Football prop bets.
The Colts have been dominant in this matchup, winning 10 straight against Tennessee with Andrew Luck under center. He was near perfect when these two teams met in Week 11, throwing for 297 yards at three TDs.
Unfortunately, it’s slim pickings for prop bets this week, and SNF is no exception, with only a handful of lines being offered across a few books. Marcus Mariota likely sitting this one out only adds to the uncertainty.
Between a profitable main slate and a clean Sunday Night card, we went 4-1 in Week 16, missing out on a sweep only when Demaryius Thomas went down.
It’s been a phenomenal regular season run for our picks, particularly the article selections.
Article picks: 50-24 (68%)
Bet the Prop Overall Record: 337-230 (59%)
Colts WR TY Hilton
Over 5.5 Receptions (-150)
Hilton corralled all nine of his targets when he last took on the Titans. In fact, he’s been one the the league’s busiest WRs since that game:
- His 67 targets in that time ranks fourth among all WRs in that time, while his 779 yards leads the league.
- He’s commanded a 26 percent market share of team targets and a 40 percent share of Air Yards, both ranking in the top 12.
Hilton is averaging 10 targets per game since the last Titan showdown, and in 11 career matchups, he’s had seven or more targets eight times.
He gets a big boost from playing at home in the dome as well — over his career, the Colts No. 1 is averaging five catches and 84 yards indoors compared to 4.3 receptions for 60.4 yards outdoors.
We’re already paying a lot of juice on this bet, and I wouldn’t be willing to pay any more, nor would I be willing to play the number to six.
Colts WR Ryan Grant
Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
This is a rather random line — Grant hasn’t cleared this hurdle in any of his last seven games, averaging 8.6 yards over than time and topping out at just 16 yards.
He hasn’t has more than three targets in any of those games and managed to gain just 15 yards when these teams met in Week 11.
Grant is now effectively sixth in line for team targets, behind even Zach Pascal and Chester Rogers.
Titans WR Tajae Sharpe
Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
It’s much the same story with Sharpe, who was held target-less last week versus Washington.
While he did post 37 yards on seven targets when taking on the Colts in that Week 11 matchup, that was without WR Taywan Taylor, who has since returned and surpassed Sharpe in the pecking order, out targeting him 20 to 11 over the last month.
Sharpe has 0 yards receiving in five of his last eight games.
With a projection of just 17.8 yards, this is one of the top plays in the Player Props Tool. I’d play this line down to 19.5 yards and at this number, would pay the vig up to -130.
