Sunday brings a full slate of games, and while there ‘s solid value to be all over the board, our best week 16 prop bets will focus in on wide receivers.
In particular, there are three overs we’re eyeing from a trio of pass catchers well positioned to exceed expectations this week.
Last week was lights out, as our article picks went 5-2 on Sunday, while our record for the week was 25-15-3, further padding our win percentage on the season.
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- Article picks: 46-23 (67%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 312-218 (59%)
Saints WR Michael Thomas
Over 6.5 Receptions (-150 @ Sportsbook.ag)
Like Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints offense, Michael Thomas has been much better under the lights of the Superdome. He averages 10 targets and 8.7 receptions at home, while putting up 7.1 receptions on 8.4 targets on the road.
Not only is he back at home, but he’s in a sensational spot in the week’s second-highest totaled game. Vegas sees a lot of scoring in this one, and the Steelers have been lit up in the slot over the past month.
- Julian Edelman: 7 catches for 90 yards
- Keenan Allen: 14-148
- Seth Roberts 5-76
- Emmanuel Sanders: 7-86
Thomas plays the majority of his snaps from the slot and will have ample opportunity to build on his 24 targets over the past two weeks.
Even at the juiced-up price of -150, this bet is a solid value, but I wouldn’t pay much more than that. If the number moves to 7 receptions at a better price, I still like the play.
Bills WR Robert Foster
Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ 5 Dimes)
With the Action Network’s Sean Koerner currently projecting Foster at 50.8 yards, this prop is one stands out as a phenomenal value. Watch for this number to creep up as the money starts to come in.
There’s plenty to like here, not the least of which is Robert Foster going for at least 94 yards in four of his last five games.
- Over the past month, the rookie out of Alabama is 11th in receiving yards and 10th in Air Yards.
- His average depth of target of 23.9 is second among all WRs (with at least 10 targets) in that time, behind only David Moore.
- His Bills are two-TD underdogs on the road against the Patriots, setting up a an ideal game script for even more deep shots.
As Buffalo’s most explosive weapon, there is a risk that Bill Belichick will devote extra resources to slowing Foster, but between a plus game script and plenty of volume, this number is just too low.
I’d play it up to 47.5 Receiving Yards, and at this number, would be willing to pay the big up to -122.
Check out the rest of our Week 16 main slate picks via the Action Network.