Oh wow … the difference a week makes! Last Monday, the Boston Celtics were down 3-0 in the conference finals, coming off a 26-point loss. Today, it’s time for a monumental Game 7 in Boston, and we’re locking in our favorite NBA Props for Monday night’s showdown.
Boston is aiming to pull off the impossible tonight, while the Miami Heat are conversely hoping to avoid embarrassment — tip-off is at 8:30 ET. Boston is an 8-point favorite in this one, as they look to clinch a spot in the NBA Finals for the second consecutive year.
The C’s have displayed some recent success in this series despite an overall lack of contribution from Jaylen Brown. Miami has bothered him and cut off a significant portion of his production in this series. And, in what could be one of the lowest-scoring games of the season, we love Jaylen’s unders this evening.
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NBA Props for Monday (5/29)
Jaylen Brown Under 24.5 Points (-115 @ BetMGM)
Jaylen Brown got off to his hottest start of the Conference Finals in Game 6 on Saturday night. He went 5 for 6 from the field, dropping 10 points in the opening frame. However, he went just 4-of-10 the rest of the way, finishing with 26 points.
Brown’s Game 6 performance was undoubtedly his best of the series. And yet, he only managed to exceed this line by one basket. JB will need a lot to go right to score in the high 20s in Game 7, and a 21-point or 23-point performance would be far more likely, based on what we’ve seen from him lately.
Jaylen shot the lights out in the first round against the Atlanta Hawks. He posted 26.7 points per game on 54.1% shooting from the field in Boston’s 4-2 series victory. But, he’s posted just 21.1 PPG on 48.6% FG in two series since.
Playoff defenses get better and better as teams go deeper into the postseason. And, the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat have each proven that to the C’s this season.
Brown is yet to top the 26-point mark since the first round concluded a month ago, and he’s cashed this under in 10 of his 13 games during this stretch.
With Boston making their second consecutive deep playoff run, we have a large postseason sample to work with for Jaylen’s scoring output. And, he’s scored fewer than 24.5 points in 29 of his 43 games over the last two postseasons. That’s good for a 67.4% hit rate, while he’s averaged only 23.0 PPG.
Furthermore, against this Miami group, Brown has struggled even more.
Tonight’s contest marks the 14th postseason matchup between Jaylen Brown and the Miami Heat since 2022. To say that head coach Erik Spoelstra‘s group is familiar with JB would be a significant understatement.
Brown is averaging just 21.8 PPG in these 13 games, cashing this under in 10 of them. In addition to slower-paced action in huge games, there are plenty of schematic reasons for Brown’s demise against Miami.
Jaylen’s ball handling has been a gigantic issue in the playoffs as the C’s have made runs at an NBA title. His 11.5% regular-season turnover rate has risen to 13.4% in the playoffs over the last two years. And, this has been a point of emphasis for Gabe Vincent, Jimmy Butler, and Caleb Martin in guarding Jaylen this series.
Vincent presents the least threatening matchup of the group, as JB has been able to get decent looks out of post-ups and mid-range shots over the 6’3″ Vincent. However, against Jimmy and Caleb, he’s struggled to consistently get any high-quality looks. I’m expecting Miami to keep showing bodies on Brown’s drives and force him to hit contested jumpers, which he hasn’t been able to do all series long.
Jaylen Brown has failed to score 25-plus points in 14 of his 19 games in the Conference Finals and Finals over the last two seasons. With a trip to the Finals on the line, look for Miami to continue making this incredibly tough for Boston’s second option on Memorial Day
Have fun playing our best NBA Props for Monday and Join us for the NBA Finals!