With Ben Zauzmer posting the rest of his Oscars model for the technical categories on The Hollywood Reporter this morning, I wanted to do a quick follow up post with some more best Oscars prop bets.
If you want to read about some of the best longshot bets for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Cinematography, check out my previous post. (Also, a Bet The Prop reader found some even better lines for those bets at 5Dimes so be sure to shop around if you are so inclined).
Unlike the major categories, where the value lay among the longshots, the technical categories are offering plus odds on nominees the model gives a legitimate chance to win.
Best Film Editing
Best Bets: Bohemian Rhapsody (+250) & The Favourite (+350)
Zauzmer calls this the tightest race of the entire ceremony with Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, and Vice all within two percentage points in the model. Despite that, Bovada has Vice (-150) as a decent favorite.
I don’t have a read on whether Bohemian Rhapsody or The Favourite has a better chance, so I’ll probably just take the extra value with The Favourite, but both look like good bets to me at plus odds considering how tight his model is forecasting the race.
“First and second place are separated by just 0.2 percentage points. Even first and third are only 2.1 points apart. You may as well flip a three-sided coin.”
Best Sound Editing
Best Bets: A Quiet Place (+350) & Bohemian Rhapsody (+600)
Best Sound Editing might be the best bet on the board, with the two favorites in Zauzmer’s model, A Quiet Place (30.2%) and Bohemian Rhapsody (28.8%), both offering juicy plus odds.
Zauzmer does caution that the sound categories can be tricky, but it seems impossible not to get in good here, especially with Bohemian Rhapsody, whose implied odds on Bovada are just 14.4% compared to the model’s 28.8%.
The most relevant recognition here is the Motion Picture Sound Editors. While they gave out many awards, including one to Roma and two to Bohemian Rhapsody, their best Oscar predictor is the category for sound effects, and that went to A Quiet Place, so the math is just barely picking the nearly dialogue-free horror film to win for its sound.
Bonus Longshot Category to Target
Best Sound Mixing
- First Man (Bovada: +1000, 9.1%; Model: 18.1%)
- Black Panther (Bovada: +3300, 2.9%; Model: 10.6%)
Good luck, and have fun!
Pete Overzet is host of the comedic video show The Turnover on 4for4, a contributor at Rotoviz, and producer/manager for DFS/Poker/Crypto superstar Pete Manzinelli. You can follow him on Twitter (@peteroverzet).