- Wildcard weekend props are here, and we put RB JD McKissic under the spotlight as we break down his rushing line of 21.5 yards
- His Football Team are 8-point underdogs to the Bucs in Saturday’s nightcap
- This is the second-lowest totaled game of the weekend slate with an O/U of 44.5
NFL playoffs and Wildcard Weekend props are a different beast — the liquidity pouring into these markets increases dramatically and lines will be the sharpest they’ve been all season.
We’ve poured through all the openings so far, and this is one of the few that lines popped off the page as an obvious value. Let’s get to it.
We’re looking to build on a regular season that saw win at a 61.3% rate with a 15.8% ROI — join us here to get full NFL playoffs slates – plus NBA props & more – alerted to your device.
????Week 17 Recap
✅4-2, +1.79U
????️Final Reg Szn YTD:
????❗️250-158, 61.3%❗️ (2nd straight year > 60%)
????+74.62U (1U flat betting) ????
????Avg Price -112 ????
????ROI 15.8% ????Does not include szn-long props, which went 25-4… pic.twitter.com/MB4t03RtCY
— Bet the Prop (@bettheprop) January 4, 2021
MORE PROPS: Check out BTP’s top NFL prop for Seahawks v Rams on Wild Ward Weekend.
Wildcard Weekend Props
Washington RB JD McKissic
Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-118 at DK)
Note: Playable to U19.5 yards.
It’s a low number, but are a multitude of factors working against Washington’s third-string RB:
- A healthy Antonio Gibson
- Lack of touches
- A game script with projects them to be trailing
- a brutal matchup
The first two points are clearly closely connected. When Gibson is active, we simply don’t see McKissic used much in the run game.
McKissic is averaging 17.8 yards on 4.4 carries in 14 games with Gibson active this year — viz courtesy of the RotoViz Splits App.
More of a pass-catching specialist, McKissic has gone under our line of 21.5 rushing yards in 10 of 14 of those games.
Bucs Brick Wall
Even if McKissic gets five or six carries for some reason, the Bucs matchup is as bad as it gets on the ground for opposing backs.
- 285 carries allowed (best)
- 964 yards allowed (15% fewer yards than the second-best team)
- 3.4 YPC permitted (best)
Of the 47 RBs to get at least one carry against Tampa Bay this year, just six of them managed to crack even 40 yards on the ground.
However, with an 8-point spread suggesting the Bucs run away with this one, it’s possible we don’t see more than 2 or 3 carries for McKisssc.
Given that Tampa allows the most RB receptions in the league, I would expect him to be much more involved in that phase of the game.
Conclusion
Numbers this low always come with plenty of variance, but it’s pretty clear that this line is baking in his recent averages, and those include two games without Gibson in which McKissic tallied 11 for 68 and 13 for 51 yards.
The number fails to account for the context of this game and should probably be set closer to 17.
