Most of the player prop bets for Week 10 won’t be released until Saturday morning at the earliest.
The week got off to a heartbreaking start on Thursday Night Football. We finished at 2-2 but were four yards short of going 3-1 after a random Vance McDonald surge in garbage time.
Here are three head-to-head prop bets we’re attacking in Week 10.
Todd Gurley > Ezekiel Elliot, Rushing Yards
It’s not often we see Todd Gurley in these head to heads props, as he’s usually just not a value, but against Ezekiel Elliot this week looks like a profitable spot.
This comes down to a brutal matchup for Elliot, who faces off against an Eagles defense surrendering far fewer rushing yards than any other team at a stingy 50.6 per outing.
Other than Saquon Barkley’s 130 yards, Philadelphia hasn’t allowed an opposing RB to eclipse 42 yards.
Gurley’s matchup against Seattle isn’t a dream, but as a 10-point favorite, the Rams are likely to heavily feed their bell cow.
Nick Chubb > Saquon Barkley, Carries
Odds makers have been pricing Saquon Barkley like he’s a 17-carry workhorse for weeks now, but they must have him mistaken for someone else.
- The freak show rookie may be the best receiving back in the game, but he averages just 13.9 carries per game.
- His 111 total attempts ranks 11th among all RBs, right on par with guys like Phillip Lindsay and Christian McCaffrey.
- He’s never had more than 18 rushes in a game.
Chubb, meanwhile, has never had anything less than 18 carries since taking over as starter, averaging 19.3 in that time.
In fact, since Carlos Hyde was traded away, Chubb trails only Adrian Peterson in total carries, notching five more rushes than even Todd Gurley.
This prop is simply mispriced. If you are going to play it, do it soon before the odds change.
Marlon Mack > Leonard Fournette, Rushing Yards
The unstoppable force meets the movable object.
Marlon Mack has been a man on a mission since returning to the Indianapolis lineup. In his three games running behind a suddenly-elite offensive line, Mack has piled up 347 rushing yards, second only to Todd Gurley’s 385 yards over the same stretch.
His 5.8 yards per carry is fourth among all RBs (with at least 40 attempts) on the season.
Simply put, he’s been incredibly efficient with a ton of opportunity.
(Courtesy FF Draft Prep)
The Jaguars are reeling, especially when it comes to run defense. They’ve given up 125 rushing yards in each of their last four games, all losses.
We’re matching him up with Fournette, who has a laundry list of factors working against him:
- He hasn’t played since Week 4 while nursing a hamstring injury.
- He’s proven that he’s always a risk of an in-game injury aggravation.
- He hasn’t gone over 100 rushing yards in almost a calendar year, last hitting the century mark in Week 11 last year.
- In his absence, Jacksonville traded for RB Carlos Hyde, who is averaging 17 carries per game.
- His Jaguars are three-point underdogs.
But other than those five red flags, Fournette’s outlook outlook is just great this week.
Eli Manning > Patrick Mahomes, Completions
Manning ranks sixth in QB attempts with an average of 39.4 per game; that’s 10 percent better than Mahomes’ 35.2 ranking, which is good for 13th in the league.
I’m targeting Mahomes against Eli for two reasons:
- His star power always bumps the odds a bit.
- He faces a Cardinals team giving up the eighth-fewest completions per game at 21.8.
- Mahomes averages 23.3 completions compared to Manning’s 26.9.
It’s not that the Cardinals are very good at defending the pass, it’s that they’re always getting blown out. And as 17-point underdogs, it’s unlikely Mahomes exceeds his expected level of completions.
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