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NFL Player Props

Why Eli Manning Will Hit the Over and More Player Prop Bets for TNF

The nice thing about handicapping divisional games is that we have more historical data points to rely on.

The Eagles and Giants meet on Thursday night, and they have plenty of history between them.

Let’s look into some of the more recent match ups, as well as what we’ve seen this year, to identify the best player prop bets for tonight’s game.

Eli Manning

Over 259.5 Passing Yards

1 Unit to Win .75 Units

Here’s what Manning has done in his most recent outings against the Eagles.

Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int
37 57 64.91 434 3 1
35 47 74.47 366 3 2
38 63 60.32 356 1 3
22 36 61.11 257 4 2
24 43 55.81 302 2 0

He’s eclipsed 300 passing yards in five of six games vs the Eagles, including 434 and 366 yards last year against a secondary that was much healthier then than it is now.

Already down safety Rodney McLeod, the Eagles will now also be without his fill-in, Corey Graham.

Manning has surpassed this 259.5 total in three of five games so far on the year, while Philadelphia’s allowed passing totals of 301, 344, 162, and 402 in recent weeks.

Sterling Shepard

Over 55.5 Receiving Yards

1 Unit to Win .75 Units

The biggest benefactor from Manning’s blow-up games against the Eagles last year was Sterling Shepard, who racked up receiving lines of 133 and 139 yards.

Tight end Evan Engram remains out of the lineup, and as we pointed out last week, Shepard essentially soaks up all his targets in the middle of the field.

He’s now gone over 70 yards in three straight games with Engram missing and faces an Eagles secondary giving up the third-most yards to WRs.

Carson Wentz

Over 18.5 Rushing Yards

1 Unit to Win .71 Units

QBs have largely eluded the New York Giants so far this year.

  • They’ve given up the most rush attempts to opposing QBs at 32, 5.3 per game.
  • They’ve yielded 35.8 QB rushing yards per game,  23 percent more than the next-closest team.
  • Their six sacks are tied with the Raiders for the fewest in the league.

Wentz hasn’t been very mobile since his return, but he broke out for 26 yards on five carries last week.

Saquon Barkley

Under 61.5 Rushing Yards

1 Unit to Win .75 Units

The best effort any one opposing back has managed against the Eagles this year is 42 rushing yards. While they haven’t faced anyone of Barkley’s caliber, they’ve still held teams to an amazing 42.2 rushing yards per game.

Barkley has been boom or bust on the ground, going under 50 yards three times, and over 80 twice. He’s a threat to break loose on any carry, but Philadelphia has the look of an elite run defense.

Zach Ertz

Over 69.5 Yards

1 Unit to Win .87 Units

Considering Ertz has at least 10 targets in every game this year and is averaging 87.4 passing yards per outing, this line seems far too low.

His 29 percent share of team targets is the best among all TEs, and he’s third in total Air Yards at the position.

Ertz has been the main artery through which the Eagles attack has coursed since welcoming Wentz back to the lineup.

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