After a week off, we’re back at it with some PGA Wells Fargo Championship best bets.
The course is Quail Hollow Club and is a long Par 71. It can play over 7,550 yards, depending on how it’s set up. The majority of the Par 3s are 200-plus yards, and most of the Par 4s on this course, so distance is definitely a factor here.
There’s a matchup that’s sticking out to me as good value after the first run of my model. I’m very interested in getting Jhonattan Vegas (+110) at plus odds in this matchup against Keegan Bradley (-130).
The Pick: Jhonattan Vegas +110
Over his past five events, Vegas has made each cut. He’s averaging nearly 3 more Strokes Gained: Tee to Green over that span compared to his average since the start of 2018, per the RotoViz Splits App.
Over the past two seasons, Bradley hasn’t performed well on longer courses. He has gained over twice as many strokes Tee to Green on shorter (sub-7,400 yard) courses compared to those over 7,400 yards.
That, coupled with the fact that he hasn’t been sharp with his game over his past two starts makes him an easier fade for me this week.
Neither of these guys has had overwhelming success at Quail Hollow.
Bradley has missed the cut in all three of his attempts at this course (not counting the different setup of the PGA Championship). Vegas hasn’t exactly been a stud here, either, but at least he’s made the past two cuts at this event, albeit with so-so results.
If you zoom way out and look across the past five years or so, it’s no surprise that Keegan Bradley holds the edge across the 91 events they’ve both appeared in. If we were just looking at that, Bradley would be close to a -200 favorite. But, I like to look at recent matchups when betting head to heads.
If we narrow down to the past 6 months, Vegas is 3-2 against Bradley in tournaments they’ve both played. That would put him at -150. In the three events where they’ve both made the cut, Vegas has outperformed Bradley every time.
I’m taking the plus odds on Vegas in this head to head every time and would play him all the way down to -110 here.