"Between 72 – 80 percent of a receiver’s same-season production can be explained just by looking at target and air yards volume. If we know how many air yards are thrown at a guy along with how many times (targets), we can make a pretty accurate guess at what his receiving yards will be."Early in the season, we see some big discrepancies between a player's opportunity (Air Yards) and his perceived value. Take our first prop play in this article -- everyone is down on DeVante Parker after he had zero yards last week, but he's getting a ton of Air Yards, making it unlikely he'll continue to produce at a low level. Also be sure to check out our favorite Week 3 plays at RB. While we went 1-2 in NFL prop analysis for WRs in Week 2, we're having a fantastic year to date so far -- subscriber picks are 30-16 (65%) on the season for an 11-unit profit. You can join us here!
Dolphins WR DeVante Parker
Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114)There's a non-zero chance I won't be able to look myself in the mirror Sunday evening after making this pick. But hear me out -- Parker may be the most undervalued WR on the board this weekend. Opportunity - in the form of Air Yards, in this case - is everything, and Parker is swimming in it. He ranks second among all WRs with 329 Air Yards, behind only Keenan Allen, and yet Parker has just the 74th-most receiving yards with 74. There are eight WRs with at least 250 Air Yards this season. Remove Parker, and they've averaged 92 receiving yards per game, more than double the line of 37.5 we need the beat.
|Name||Rec Yards||Air Yards|
Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald
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