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NFL Player Props

Week 17 Prop Bets: Believing in David Johnson’s Receiving

The final week of the regular season poses a unique challenge for prop bettors — matters of motivation and player usage will be fluid from one minute to the next, making projections tricky task.

For that reason, there are considerably fewer lines being offered by sports books. So while there are still a few great Week 17 prop bets to attack, it’s not a week for betting volume.

Between our main slate picks and a Sunday Night sweep, we went 4-1 in Week 16, missing out on a perfect week only when Demaryius Thomas went down.

It’s been a phenomenal regular season run for our picks, particularly the article selections.

Main slate & SNF Article picks: 50-24 (68%)

Bet the Prop Overall Record: 337-230 (59%)

Cardinals RB David Johnson

Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

In their 15 games, the Seahawks have allowed 20 or more receiving yards to 17 different RBs. That includes the likes of LeGarrette Blount, Jordan Howard, and Kyle Juszczyk. Johnson himself doubled this line when these teams met in Week 4.

A weakness in general, the Seahawks have been particularly vulnerable to receiving RBs of late.

  • Since Week 10, they’ve given up 87.6 receiving yards per game to opposing backs.
  • On the season, they rank second last in that category with 60 per game.

The Seahawks’ slow pace and dominant possession numbers are concerns here. However, the Cardinals are 12-point road underdogs, setting up a spot where Johnson’s absolute floor is five targets.

With Sean Koerner projecting 27 yards on 3.5 receptions, this is one of the best bets in the props tool. I’d play the number to 24.5, and I’m likely playing the over on 2.5 receptions (-135) as well. 

Bills WR Robert Foster

Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

This line opened at -115 before quickly moving to -130, and I expect it will continue to move.

A recent timeline of Bob Foster-related developments:

  • He ranked 11th in receiving yards and 10th in Air Yards for the month leading up to last week’s game.
  • Finished seventh among among all WRs in Air Yards in that game with 148.
  • Beat his receiving prop line of 44.5 by 17 percent (56 yards vs NE).
  • Sees his receiving prop line bumped by just two yards the following week.

Something doesn’t add up.

It’s rare to see that type of volume paired with such a low line. Since Week 10 – a sizable sample by NFL standards – Foster is averaging 82.7 yards per game. Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 88.5 in that time. Saints WR Michael Thomas is averaging 70.1.

His 25.4 average depth of target is by far the best mark in the league (among all WRs with at least 10 targets). Think about that for a moment — every time Foster is targeted, it is, on average, for more than a quarter of the football field. And he’s averaging more than six targets per game in his last three.

I could go on — by almost any measure, Foster’s underlying and raw numbers have been elite of late. Oh, and Dolphins top corner Xavien Howard is out for this one, too.

If I’m setting this line, it would be 54.5, and I would still play the over. At this 46.5 number, I’m happy to pay up to -130 in juice. 

Check out more Week 17 picks via The Action Network.

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