Bet the Prop
Image default

Week 1 NFL Props: D.J. Moore, Still Disrespected

  • Our Week 1 NFL props slate kicks off with this free, feature play as we look at D.J. Moore’s receiving yards line against the Las Vegas Raiders
  • Moore is coming off a sophomore season in which he ranked 10th among all WRs in targets and yards
  • We’re already posting tons of Week 1 NFL props plays for our subscribers. These early weeks are the best time to take advantage — our edge will never be bigger than it is now, and there’s still time to join us before kickoff

Bet the Prop is a D.J. Moore site; always has been. We touted him on several occasions last year and this year made him one of our best bets to lead the league in receiving.

Despite coming into the league as a near-perfect prospect and doing nothing but delivering through two seasons, Moore somehow still remains undervalued. Let’s jump in.

MORECheck out our favorite player prop for Sunday Night Football here.

Panthers WR D.J. Moore

Over/Under 60.5 Yards (-122 / +100, DraftKings)

Update for Sunday morning: This market has moved since we posted this play Saturday, but there are still a few playable spots out there, including O65.5 -110 at Fan Duel. 

Looking through the props database from last year, here’s what Moore’s betting market on receiving yards looked like:

  • Average line: O/U 65.7 yards
  • Low line: 55.5 (Week 1)
  • High line: 78.5 (Week 15)
  • Median Line: 62.5
  • O/U record on betting line: 4-11

Moore caught fire to end 2019. Through his last six games, his average betting line was 73.8 yards. The oddsmakers simply couldn’t keep up, unable to adjust to his rapid ascension to the receiving elite, which was certainly aided by Carolina’s neverending negative scripts.

Moore went 5-1 on overs in that stretch, with the only under coming in the final game when he was knocked out in the first half.

Image courtesy of our friends at RotoViz via their excellent Stat Explorer

So here we have a line in 60.5 that puts Moore back at early-2019 numbers.

It’s disrespectful at best, and if I owned this sportsbook, I’d be pulling the file of the trader who set it for a closer look.

At just 23, Moore has been lighting up camp and is still getting better.

He’s surely in a better spot going into this season:

  • The upgrade at QB from Kyle Allen to Teddy Bridgewater is undeniable
  • Unlike last year, he’s clearly established as the No. 1 WR coming into the season
  • The Panthers lost All Pro LB Luke Keuchly to retirement; expect the negative game scripts to continue

This game projects to be close with the Raiders currently a -3 favorite. But their secondary fields no one capable of matching up with Moore, and I expect him to get peppered with 7-10 targets.

The Pick: D.J. Moore Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-122 @ DK)

Much like our winner on opening night, this market just doesn’t make much sense.

So while we don’t love betting too many overs, these are spots that we can’t pass up, especially early in the season when the lines are often far less efficient than later in the season.

I’d play this as high as 66.5 yards. 

Related posts