- This free, feature play from our UFC Fight Night best bets focuses on the Welterweight matchup between Michel Pereira and Zelim Imadaev
- The Main Event is a clash between two top-10 heavyweights in Alistair Overeem and Augusto Sakai
- Saturday's UFC Fight Night takes place in the UFC APEX which has the smaller octagon, a recipe for action-packed fights
This card is littered with competitive, exciting fights, and my money is on Imadaev v Pereira to be the most entertaining of them all.
It's a tightly lined fight and there isn't a huge edge here either way, but I do think one man has the slight edge, and I'm about to break down why. Consider this one as a strong lean.
I've also got two official plays lined up for this one, and you can unlock the full card with a UFC Fight Pass here. More details after the breakdown.
My documented UFC Betting Record:
- Average Price: +113
- ROI: 25%
Zelim Imadaev (-110) v Michel Pereira (-110)
Here are keys to victory for Pereira:
- Don’t waste energy doing flips or unnecessary tactics
- Utilize his athleticism, movement, and speed advantage
- Stay long with his striking, keeping Imadaev at distance to counter successfully
- Don’t get drawn into a brawl, or allow Imadaev to grapple for extended periods
Pereira is extremely athletic, strong, and has good speed on his strikes, especially early. Expect a lot of excitement with high energy techniques as he looks to land a fight-changing blow.
Imadaev is another exciting fighter, but he employs more of a conventional fighting style. He'll throw spinning strikes, but outside of that he's going to be sticking to the fundamentals, and that could be the difference in this bout. If Imadaev shows up fighting how he fought Diego Sanchez, this is a fight that he should win.
But you just never know if this guy will show up doing backflips.
I took the risk betting against Diego Sanchez in that bout, but I don’t think the line is good enough to do so here. I think Pereira will win Round 1; Round 2 will be a coin flip, and then in Round 3, Imadaev will start winning. In a close fight lined pretty accurately, I think Michel gets a split decision victory here most times.
Pereira with an early knockout isn’t out of question either.
How I lined this fight: Pereira -122 (55%)
Pereira to Win -110
Check bestfightodds.com to find the best current price on this play.
Buy my full UFC Fight Card to get:
- Two official plays, plus leans for every fight
- Detailed breakdowns like this for the entire card
- Confidence level and perceived win % breakdowns
- DFS angles for all bouts
Purchase a UFC Fight Pass here to unlock it all.
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