- UFC 257 is finally here & Conor McGregor cards always bring the most eyeballs to the sport
- I typically don’t put out subscriber plays in this space, but since we are on a roll going 6-0-1 in our last main event bets, let’s see if I can stay hot
- Our breakdown covers the Main event matchup between the biggest star in the sport Conor McGregor, who will be re-matching former interim champion & No. 2 ranked Dustin Poirier
- Prelims for UFC 257 get underway at 7pm ET, and the main card starts at 10 pm ET
Enjoy the free UFC pick, and if you want more, I’ve got an additional 2 unit play, plus leans and detailed betting analysis for every fight — & you can unlock it all with a UFC Fight Pass for $19.
We had a great night out on Wednesday’s mid-week card, so let’s stay hot.
My results after 3 years:
Like football? Get the best player props in the industry (plus every UFC card!) when you join our community.
UFC 257 Betting Tips
Dustin Poirier (+250) vs Conor McGregor (-300)
Here are keys to victory for Poirier:
- Be on high alert, especially those first few minutes for anything
- Extend the fight…extend the fight…extend the fight
- Make Conor move backward; do not let him dictate this dance for extended periods
- Even if they are failed grappling attempts, mix it up, shoot for a takedown, run him towards the fence for clinch opportunities
- While on the feet, go to the body and legs early & often
The Fighters
The Notorious
In what will be the biggest main event until the next Conor McGregor show, I think we have a war coming our way.
The Irishman (22-4) returns to the cage after humiliating Donald Cerrone in 40 seconds one year ago. McGregor demonstrated once again he’s the best starter in the history of the sport. From his rise to the end of 2016 Conor is the best counter-puncher Ive seen in MMA since I started taping fights.
He posses the ability to make his opponent feel constant pressure and danger, pushing them backward and forcing them out of their offense. All of that is a trap to set up his greatest strengths which are pulling opposition into countering opportunities for the monster left.
The Diamond
Dustin Poirier (26-6) not only has a tough opponent in front of him physically but also a mental battle knowing this guy already knocked him unconscious once.
A much more emotional, not-as-skilled Poirier lost that first bout in 2014.
Since that night Dustin has improved immensely upon his striking skills, moved up in weight showing incredible durability, and beat some of the best in the world.
Poirier has beaten elite guys with his wrestling, striking, clinch game, and cardio, showing off his well-rounded skill set. If he plans on having a shot in this fight there is no question he must mix it up.
He cannot let McGregor dictate how the fight goes the entire first five minutes.
Question Marks
In the MMA betting game, there are certain qualities that I most value as a bettor — cardio, power, skills, heart, volume, and activity of a fighter.
When I break this fight down, Dustin checks every single box, without question. I cannot say the same for McGregor’s cardio, not for certain. I’ve seen Conor dig deep once in his entire career against Diaz 2 in a fight he badly wanted back, but can he still do that?
I must consider McGregor’s inactivity, especially when looking at his fighting style. Counter striking is all about reacting and then punishing the opposition for mistakes. I’m not saying Conor still doesn’t have it, but he was extremely active when he was at his best.
Does he still have that exact level of striking and timing he had?
Based on the history of inactive fighters, I have to assume he does not still possess the highest -level of countering ability. I also don’t hate the fact Conor has lost four fights, and three of those guys were durable, boxers with good grappling with cardio much like Dustin.
All that said, if 2016 Conor shows up we might be fucked; however, at these odds, it’s worth the risk.
How it Plays
Since leveling up his striking, I think Dustin is going to see Conor’s punches coming a lot better than the first time.
McGregor is great because he cracks guys with the strikes they don’t see. With Dustin reading the punches better, he will absorb them much better.
Assuming Dustin can survive that initial onslaught – McGregor is the best starter in MMA – this fight becomes incredibly close in my opinion. The longer it goes, the more Conor will start respecting the Poirier power which will finally have him taking backward steps.
Once he’s moving backward, Dustin is going to get this guy on the fence working his clinch/grappling game. Dustin won’t hit takedowns in open space, but from the cage, he can absolutely clasp his hands together dumping McGregor to the floor come late Round and beyond.
Prediction
I’m taking Dustin to weather the storm, and get the biggest win of his life. Dustin Poirier finishes Conor McGregor in round 4 after a takedown with ground n pound or a choke.
OFFICIAL PLAY: RISK 1 UNITS on Dustin Poirier Money line @ +250.
I’ve got more picks and analysis!
Buy my full UFC Fight Card & get:
- Three official plays, plus leans for every fight
- Detailed breakdowns like this for the entire card
- Confidence level and perceived win %, & more
