We turn to two of the baseball’s hottest arms for Tuesday’s top MLB props, as Brandon Woodruff and electric rookie Chris Paddack take to the mound.
Woodruff’s Brewers (24-19) are in Philadelphia (24-16), while Paddack is looking to build on the best start of his career the last time out when his Padres (22-19) visit the Dodgers (27-16) in the 10:10 ET late game.
We’re coming off another win in our free article picks — it was certainly a sweat, but as predicted, Freddy Peralta got hit hard and chased early from last night’s start. That puts us our article picks 5-1 over the last week, while our subscription plays are 146-102 on the season. Sign up for the full package today and get the first week for free.
Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff
Over 6Ks (+110)
Woodruff has a tough assignment against the Phillies tonight, and if this price was set at the usual -114 vig, I’d probably pass. However, given his strong form on the year, I can’t resist taking the plus odds here.
He’s had at least 6 strikeouts in every game since a 5K outing in his first start, including 9 in a 106-pitch gem against Washington the last time out. He’s now averaging 1.38 Ks per inning over his last three starts — for reference, that’s right on par with what strikeout wizards Jacob DeGrom (4th in MLB with 1.36K/IP) and Carlos Carrasco (3rd with 1.39 K/IP) are doing on the season.
The 26-year old now boasts an impressive 55:12 K-to-walks ratio on the season.
The Phillies have hit righties hard on the year, and over their last 150 games, they sport a sleek 20.2 kRate. Still, this number at plus odds for such a consistent performer is too attractive to pass up.
Padres SP Chris Paddack
Over 5Ks (-143)
As expected, it’s been a bit of an uneven start to the rookie season for one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. But after some erratic-but-electric appearances, the Paddack put it all together in his most recent start, taking just 91 pitches to strike out 11 Mets batters in 7.2 innings.
The 23-year old has now struck out 30.2 percent of the batters he’s faced in his career while posting an impressive 1.58 ERA, and a 0.70 WHIP.
Like with Woodruff, this matchup is no cakewalk. The Dodgers are striking out just 19.5% of the time over their past 150 games, and on the season they have the fifth-best mark in the league with just 7.95 K/9.
But this O/U of 5Ks is just too low. Paddack’s only gone under that total once this season (4Ks in his second start), while averaging 6.7 strikeouts per start.
