We lay out the plan to fade Jakobi Meyers as our main TNF props recommendation for the Patriots and Falcons game Thursday night.
Coming off a Patriots blowout in which he scored his first career touchdown on his 135th NFL reception, Meyers is second on the team in total receiving yards – Kendrick Bourne is the leader, in case you were wondering – but he rarely has blowup games in what has been a slow, methodical New England offense.
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TNF Props for Patriots Falcons
Jakobi Meyers Under 55.5 RecYds (-115 @ DraftKings)
Meyers has gone under this number (and under his closing line) in seven of 10 games this season, and one of the overs was by the hook, against Houston. The two other overs came against pass-funnel defenses when Meyers got 14 targets against New Orleans and 12 targets against Tampa. He hasn’t hit double-digit targets in any other games.
His median receiving yards total is 44, and it’s rare to see that large of a gap between the median result and the prop line these days.
The Patriots offense runs an average of 65 plays per game, 17th in the league. (By comparison, Kansas City runs 72 per game, while Seattle is the worst at 56.)
When playing with a lead, New England passes just half the time, which is in the bottom third of NFL teams –- but that’s to be expected, considering how often NFL teams run a conservative offense when being led by a rookie quarterback (in this case, Mac Jones).
The Matchup
Despite their losing record, the Falcons have been surprisingly adept against the pass, allowing the 10th-fewest yards per game to wide receivers. Opponents’ pass rate against the Atlanta defense is only 56%, the fifth-lowest rate in the league so far this season.
The Patriots and Falcons offenses combine for 70.5 snaps per 60 minutes, the fifth-lowest on this week’s slate.
Looking at 29 WRs the Falcons have faced this season, 19 of them (or almost two-thirds) have hit the under on their receiving yards totals for their respective matchups.
Conclusion
Although playing on the road, the Patriots are favored by a touchdown. They also will have starting running back Damien Harris back, who will command plenty of volume, as he has all year.
Those factors should help make conditions ripe for Meyers to finish under 55.5 receiving yards for the eighth time in 11 games.
