We’re slapping a put option on Colts WR Zach Pascal in our look at one of the best TNF props for Colts Jets.
The fourth-year man out of Old Dominion has been a steady presence in Indy’s passing game this year, but we think his line is a little overvalued tonight, and we’ll explain why.
This is not our favorite island game of the year for props, so consider this play a lean for 0.5 units (0.5% of your betting bankroll).
TNF Props for Colts Jets
Zach Pascal Under 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110 @ DraftKings)
Expect a sweat here either way, as this is a line that Pascal has flirted with throughout most of the season
Still, he’s only hit this number twice while averaging 34.5 yards with a median result of 43. Despite operating as their No. 2 WR, he’s not been a particularly effective target:
- Pascal’s 1.02 yards per route run (YPRR) of 1.02 ranks 154th out of all WRs
- His 0.17 targets/route ranks 128th
- His 6.11 yards/target ranks 157th among all WRs
TY Hilton will miss this game with a concussion, which is likely the main reason this line is so high in the first place. His O/U of 46.5 receiving yards represents his highest total of the season. Before tonight, his high line was 40.5 with an average of 34.4.
We think his yardage line is a little overadjusted for the absence of Hilton, who’s only played two games all year anyway, as well as the perception of the Jets being a super-soft matchup.
The Jets may be a bad defense overall, but that means they’re mostly trailing and teams can stick to the ground game, something you know the Colts would be happy to do with the red-hot Jonathan Taylor tonight.
The Jets have run the third-most plays in the league while trailing by seven points or more, and with a +10.5 spread tonight, oddsmakers are expecting more of the same.
Meanwhile, the Colts pass just 45% of the time when leading by seven-plus points, while also running an extremely slow offense — their 30 seconds/snap pace in those big-lead situations is the third-slowest in the league.
It’s a trend we’ve seen play out at the macro level over the years as well, with WRs on “heavy favorites” going under their receiving total 55.1% of the time historically.
Expect a sweat here, but with plenty of positive game script expected, plus projections for Pascal in the 33.4 to 45-yard range, we see some value in the under and would play it to -130 or U44.5 yards.