Chase Edmonds has finally ascended to lead-back status for undefeated Arizona, and he’s the focus of our TNF props this week for Cardinals Packers.
The 7-0 Cardinals host the 6-1 Packers in a match that had the makings of a heavyweight prize fight before star wide receiver Davante Adams landed on the covid list – to be joined later by WR Allen Lazard – and made Green Bay an even larger underdog. But our examination for this game is on Edmonds.
TNF Props for Cardinals Packers
Chase Edmonds OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards ()
The fourth-year RB has served as the understudy to David Johnson and Kenyan Drake while at Arizona, but with both now gone, he has assumed the starting role for the Cardinals, though still splitting time with offseason free-agent acquisition James Conner. We put this out for subscribers at 36.5 rushing yards, but we still like the prop at the higher number.
A look at his weekly rushing totals shows that Edmonds has hit the over in five out of seven games this year, and his season-low output in Week 5 was when he was a game-time decision while dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of practice leading up to that week’s game.
The Packers have allowed a running back to surpass the total in five of seven games this season, holding only Lions and 49ers RBs to the under rushing amount. In the past, Arizona RBs have had to split duty with each other as well as mobile quarterback Kyler Murray, but Edmonds said recently that the “No. 1 goal in the offseason” was to transfer some of that rushing load from Murray to the running backs.
The Cardinals have had the lead for 69% of the plays they’ve run this year (331 of 479), and that goes up to or 78 percent when tied or leading, so between that and the -6.5 spread, they should have a positive game script to keep running.
While the Packers are one of the toughest opponents Arizona has faced, they’re weakened by the high likelihood that they’ll be without one of their top offensive weapons in Adams and that they’re playing on the road.
With that in mind, Arizona has consistently kept Edmonds on the field, running him out on 60 percent of total offensive snaps, including a season-high 69 percent against Houston last week. Aside from the Week 6 blowout of the Browns, Edmonds has been on the field the majority of the time on offense in every game so far.
Contrast that with Conner’s role, which has shown to be the 1B to Edmonds’s 1A. Conner has played the majority of offensive snaps just once, again in the blowout win over Cleveland.
Expect Edmonds to continue his role as the lead running back in one of the league’s premier offenses, especially at home in a short week against a covid-weakened Packers team.