Every year, I promise myself I’m going to play fewer season-long NFL props and I fail miserably. While tying up a chunk of your bankroll for four months is not ideal, season-long props are just too much fun and too soft.
These tables should be pretty straightforward, but we’ve included some notes at the bottom of the article with more on the methodology and the source of projections.
We’ve also made these tables in a fully sortable for your perusal — you can find them following the heat-map cheat sheets below.
Editor’s Note: Our NFL player prop packages are now available in weekly & monthly options. Or buy the full season and save 30% — packages starting at just $59.95 for the full season.
- Pending good health, the overs on passing yards for both Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz look strong. The Bengals were among the lowest-paced teams in the Marvin Lewis era, but their offense should have a shiny new uptempo look under new head coach, the Sean-McVay influenced Zac Taylor.
- Dak Prescott also has a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore who is likely to play faster as well; plus Prescott’s pass attempts could increase as long as Ezekiel Elliott holds out.
- We examined the Nick Foles over earlier in the offseason, and the projections like it even though the line hasn’t moved.
- Drew Brees fell short of his 4,250-yard line by 258 yards last season. The Saints have an excellent defense and run game, and Brees’ pass attempts have fallen in two straight seasons. The team has also shown that they’ll sit him in Week 17 if they have things locked up, which is a possibility again this year.
- The Vikings are going to run it a lot this year under a new offensive philosophy. More proof came when Minnesota only kept four WRs on their active roster after cuts. This Kirk Cousins passing line is pretty close, but it’s a definite lean towards the under.
- We’re bullish on Joe Flacco relative to the market this season. The Broncos new starter has gone over 17 TDs in every season that he’s started 16 games since he was a rookie. Last year, he was on pace for 21 TDs before being pulled for Lamar Jackson. I don’t expect the same thing this year — all reports indicate that second-round rookie Drew Lock is nowhere near ready to start in the NFL, and I expect Flacco to play all 16 games and breeze past this number.
- The Prescott over looks good as well for the reasons mentioned above, plus the fact that he’s gone over this 21.5 number in each of his three NFL seasons.
- Battling injuries and ineffectiveness, Marcus Mariota has totaled 11 and 13 TDs over the past two seasons. The Titans offense has looked as brutal as ever in the preseason, and backup Ryan Tannehill is a legitimate threat to start some games this year.
- Interceptions are largely random and not a favorite prop-betting target of ours, but there does appear to be some big edges relative to projections if you don’t mind the variance.
- Lamar Jackson rushed for 79.7 yards per game in his seven starts as a rookie, a 1,355-yard pace over a full season. He’s unlikely to repeat that, but even with a sharp decline in rushing pace, he can still get there — his rushing stats would essentially have to be cut in half in order for him to miss, and even the conservative fantasy projections have him beating the 755-yard line by 8.58%.
I lean over on the over for both Jackson and Josh Allen, who paced for 9.1 and 10.7 respectively as rookies.
I don’t mind betting a few more overs on QBs since they get injured less than other positions.
- Andy Dalton Over 3,250 passing yards
- Dak Prescott Over 3,600 Passing Yards
- Joe Flacco Over 17 TD passes
- Marcus Mariota Under 18.5 TD passes
- Lamar Jackson Over 775 rushing yards
- Lamar Jackson Over 5.5 rushing TDs
The Ultimate QB Cheat Sheet
Here is the QB cheat sheet in full with sortable columns.
|Player||Prop Type||Line||Projection||Raw Difference||% Difference|
|Andy Dalton||Passing Yards||3250||3,745.10||495.10||15.23%|
|Lamar Jackson||Rush TDs||5.5||6.3||0.8||14.55%|
|Carson Wentz||Passing Yards||3750||4,270.20||520.20||13.87%|
|Josh Allen||Rush TDs||5.5||6.2||0.7||12.73%|
|Joe Flacco||TD Pass||17||19.1||2.1||12.35%|
|Dak Prescott||TD Pass||21.5||23.9||2.4||11.16%|
|Cam Newton||TD Pass||22.5||24.7||2.2||9.78%|
|Cam Newton||Passing Yards||3500||3,823.70||323.70||9.25%|
|Jameis Winston||Passing Yards||4100||4,471.50||371.50||9.06%|
|Ben Roethlisberger||Passing Yards||4300||4,674.40||374.40||8.71%|
|Lamar Jackson||Rush Yards||775||841.5||66.5||8.58%|
|Nick Foles||Passing Yards||3500||3,790.10||290.10||8.29%|
|Jameis Winston||TD Pass||25.5||27.6||2.1||8.24%|
|Baker Mayfield||Passing Yards||4000||4,327.30||327.30||8.18%|
|Mitch Trubisky||Passing Yards||3500||3784||284||8.11%|
|Dak Prescott||Passing Yards||3600||3,882.60||282.60||7.85%|
|DeShaun Watson||Rush TDs||4||4.3||0.3||7.50%|
|Ben Roethlisberger||TD Pass||27.5||29.5||2||7.27%|
|Andy Dalton||TD Pass||23||24.6||1.6||6.96%|
|Patrick Mahomes||Passing Yards||4500||4,808.00||308.00||6.84%|
|Mitch Trubisky||TD Pass||23.5||25||1.5||6.38%|
|Josh Allen||Rush Yards||575||610.5||35.5||6.17%|
|Kyler Murray||TD Pass||20||21.2||1.2||6.00%|
|DeShaun Watson||Passing Yards||3900||4,130.70||230.70||5.92%|
|Derek Carr||Passing Yards||3900||4,127.50||227.50||5.83%|
|Kyler Murray||Rush Yards||475||501.8||26.8||5.64%|
|Marcus Mariota||Passing Yards||3100||3,273.80||173.80||5.61%|
|Sam Darnold||Passing Yards||3500||3,691.60||191.60||5.47%|
|Kyler Murray||Passing Yards||3500||3,689.50||189.50||5.41%|
|Jimmy Garoppolo||Passing Yards||3900||4,100.20||200.20||5.13%|
|Joe Flacco||Passing Yards||3250||3,416.60||166.60||5.13%|
|Matt Ryan||TD Pass||28.5||29.9||1.4||4.91%|
|Baker Mayfield||TD Pass||29.5||30.9||1.4||4.75%|
|DeShaun Watson||Rush Yards||500||522.6||22.6||4.52%|
|Dak Prescott||Rush TDs||5||5.2||0.2||4.00%|
|Josh Allen||Passing Yards||3100||3,221.50||121.50||3.92%|
|Jacoby Brissett||Passing Yards||3500||3,632.30||132.30||3.78%|
|Carson Wentz||TD Pass||29.5||30.6||1.1||3.73%|
|Russell Wilson||Rush Yards||350||363||13||3.71%|
|Matt Ryan||Passing Yards||4500||4,660.60||160.60||3.57%|
|Philip Rivers||Passing Yards||4250||4,396.90||146.90||3.46%|
|Jimmy Garoppolo||TD Pass||24.5||25.2||0.7||2.86%|
|Drew Brees||Passing Yards||4250||4,368.10||118.10||2.78%|
|Dak Prescott||Rush Yards||300||308.1||8.1||2.70%|
|Aaron Rodgers||Passing Yards||4200||4306||106||2.52%|
|Matthew Stafford||TD Pass||24||24.6||0.6||2.50%|
|Jared Goff||Passing Yards||4300||4,398.60||98.60||2.29%|
|Cam Newton||Rush Yards||500||510.9||10.9||2.18%|
|Derek Carr||TD Pass||23.5||24||0.5||2.13%|
|Tom Brady||Passing Yards||4300||4,390.40||90.40||2.10%|
|Kirk Cousins||Passing Yards||4100||4,162.50||62.50||1.52%|
|Nick Foles||TD Pass||21.5||21.8||0.3||1.40%|
|Lamar Jackson||Passing Yards||3000||3,037.20||37.20||1.24%|
|Josh Allen||TD Pass||17||17.2||0.2||1.18%|
|Philip Rivers||TD Pass||29.5||29.8||0.3||1.02%|
|Lamar Jackson||TD Pass||17.5||17.6||0.1||0.57%|
|Drew Brees||TD Pass||30.5||30.5||0||0.00%|
|Marcus Mariota||TD Pass||18.5||18.5||0||0.00%|
|Matthew Stafford||Passing Yards||4000||3,988.00||-12.00||-0.30%|
|Tom Brady||TD Pass||29.5||29.4||-0.1||-0.34%|
|Jacoby Brissett||TD Pass||22.5||22.4||-0.1||-0.44%|
|Jared Goff||TD Pass||30.5||30.2||-0.3||-0.98%|
|Kirk Cousins||TD Pass||27.5||27.2||-0.3||-1.09%|
|Cam Newton||Rush TDs||4.5||4.4||-0.1||-2.22%|
|DeShaun Watson||TD Pass||27.5||26.7||-0.8||-2.91%|
|Russell Wilson||Passing Yards||3700||3,589.30||-110.70||-2.99%|
|Patrick Mahomes||TD Pass||37.5||36.3||-1.2||-3.20%|
|Russell Wilson||TD Pass||29.5||27.8||-1.7||-5.76%|
|Sam Darnold||TD Pass||24.5||23||-1.5||-6.12%|
|Kyler Murray||Rush TDs||3.5||3.2||-0.3||-8.57%|
|Aaron Rodgers||TD Pass||32.5||29.6||-2.9||-8.92%|
A few quick notes on the cheat sheets.
Feel free to use the table as a baseline to explore numbers at alternate books.
We compared those betting lines to the “Consensus of Five Sources” projections at Fantasy Pros, which include Mike Clay’s — generally considered the industry standard – as well as CBS Sports, numberFire, FFToday & NFL.com. We wanted to include multiple sources in the hopes of eliminating some of the noise and outliers.