We make the bear case for Chase Claypool, telling you how and why to fade the man they call Mapletron on Monday Night Football.
This is our best MNF prop for tonight, but with the way this game shapes up, it’s an under bettor’s dream with plenty of nice fade spots. Let’s dive in on our favorite.
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Best MNF Props for Bears Steelers (11/8)
Chase Claypool Under 4.5 Receptions (-120 Bet 365 & MGM)
This is a surprising price for a guy who:
- Has hit this number just twice in six games
- Playing in a game featuring one of the year’s lowest totals, currently at 39 points at the time of publishing
- Has a massive projection deficit
- And is playing WR on a Steelers offense trending run-heavier
We’ve studied a lot of lines this year, and I can tell you it’s not often you see a -120 on a receptions line that is 22.2% off a player’s median result. Books have done a much better job this year of adjusting lines towards a player’s median result, as opposed to the year’s past when traders would just slap the player’s mean result, which is usually the higher number.
So seeing one so off is a rare sighting in the year 2021 and makes for an auto-fire play as far as we’re concerned.
With depressed play volume expected, Claypool’s average projection is 3.8 receptions, with a high of 4.2.
Claypool himself is going under his closing line on receptions at a 67% rate this year. As Pittsburgh’s best deep threat (12.1 AY/Tgt, by far the highest on the team) Claypool has likely been hardest hit by 39-year old Ben Roethlisberger slowly turning to dust.
The Steelers want to feed Najee Harris on the ground and in the short passing game.
And with David Montgomery back and the Bears already running one of the slowest and most conservative offenses in the league, this could be a short game with limited offensive opportunities.
I’m fading a bunch of players in this game, but this is my favorite spot. Good luck!