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The 3 Best Bets to Beat Their TD Prop Totals

Touchdowns tend to be high-variance events, and trying to predict them can lead to early onset graying.

These aren’t bets you want to hammer, but by leveraging our cheat sheets, we can still identify some value that will give us an edge.

Here are the three pass catchers with the best chance at beating their TD totals in 2018.

Mike Evans

The Line: 5 TDs

Tampa Bay’s No. 1 WR emerged as the No. 1 on our TD cheat sheet, as fantasy football experts across the industry project a bounce back season when it comes to scoring.

It’s easy to see why. Evans has bounced between brilliant and blah in the TD department over his four-year career.

Not that he’s due or anything, but he’s probably due.

No, he probably won’t bounce to his 12-TD level of 2016, but we only need him to find the end zone six times. His over/under for TDs has been set at just five, and all three sets of fantasy football projections have him exceeding that by an avergae of 2.7 TDs.

O/U TDs Clay Projection Clay Value FF Today Proj FF Today Value numberFire Proj numberFire Value Avg Value
Mike Evans 5 8 3 7 2 8.12 3.12 2.7

Rob Gronkowski

The Line: 8.5 TDs

It’s been a few years since Rob Gronkowski cracked nine TDs, but that’s mostly due to injury. That is of course the biggest worry here, as he’s missed 10 games over the past two season. However, he still scored eight TDs in 14 games last season.

The bottom line here is that Gronkowski is the greatest TD machine in the NFL, bar none. Since entering the league in 2010, he’s caught more raw TDs, and caught them at a higher rate, than any other pass catcher in the league.

PLAYER Receptions Targets Rec Yards Rec TDs TD Rate
Rob Gronkowski 474 723 7178 76 0.105
Dez Bryant 530 910 7460 73 0.08
Jimmy Graham 556 858 6800 69 0.08
Jordy Nelson 495 751 7162 65 0.087
Calvin Johnson 538 933 8548 62 0.066
Antonio Brown 733 1105 9861 59 0.053
Brandon Marshall 633 1086 8189 58 0.053

The probability that Gronkowski eclipses 8.5 TDs only grows with the rest of New England’s pass-catching corps suspended and on the mend.

Julian Edelman is suspended for four games and coming off an ACL injury. Dion Lewis had 32 receptions last year and caught three for TDs, but the RB is in Tennessee now. Currently, the top of their WR depth chart features Chris HoganPhillip Dorsett, and Cordarrelle Patterson.

Gronkowski has never been better set up to smash. He’s by far the best receiving option on a team that scores a ton, and if he can stay somewhat healthy, he’ll blow the 8.5 over-under away.

Larry Fitzgerald

The Line: 4 TDs

We already explained why Fitzgerald’s over under for is a great value bet, and his TD betting total of just four appears similarly undervalued.

Fitzgerald was regularly a double-digit TD contributor but has leveled off in recent years. Still, he’s eclipsed this total in three straight seasons with TD totals of 9, 6, and 6.

In fact, in his 14 seasons in the NFL, he’s gone under 4 TDs just once.

The bad news for 2018 is that Fitzgerald gets a downgrade at QB, going from Carson Palmer to Sam Bradford, and likely the rookie Josh Rosen at some point. However, that’s a double-edged sword, since the Cardinals will be a worse team, putting them in game scripts which will force them to throw the ball more.

Arizona is tied for the lowest team win total with Cleveland at an over under of 5.5. They’ll be trailing and throwing the ball around plenty late in games, and Fitzgerald is the only experienced and accomplished receiver on the roster.

They’ll have no choice but to feed him the ball, and I love the over total here.



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