Unlike prop bets for receiving yards, pinning down touchdows and be a little more challenging. While receiving yards are largely a function of volume, finding the end zone is a much more random event.
However, there is still value to be found. Let’s use our cheat sheets to find it.
Check the Cheat Sheets
These sheets compare the betting line being offered by betonline.ag against the season-long projections from three different fantasy football experts. Fantasy football has been the driving force behind some of the best analytics work in football, and they can give us a great baseline for player expectation.
Mike Clay works for ESPN and consistently provides some of the most accurate projections in football; his work is considered by many to be the gold standard in the industry. FF Today has been providing top-tier projections for years, while numberFire uses a proprietary analytics model to provide an unbiased set of projections.
How to read the table:
- The O/U column is the betting line that has been set by betonline.ag.
- “Clay proj” are the projections for each player from Mike Clay.
- The “Value” column is the difference between the line being offered and that rankers projection.
- For example, Julio Jones TD prop total is set at six, but Clay projects him to score eight. So the difference, or “value,” is +2, making the lean there the over. However, FF Today projects Jones to hit his total of six on the nose.
- To account for those variations across the projections, the final “Average Value” column is the average difference from all the projections.
- All the columns are sortable to make it easy to find the best values.
|O/U TDs||Clay Projection||Clay Value||FF Today Proj||FF Today Value||numberFire Proj||numberFire Value||Avg Value|
Notes on the Over
- The best overall value on the board is Mike Evans. The Buccaneers WR has an over/under line of just five TDs, but he’s scored 12 in a single season on two separate occasions, while averaging eight per season over the course of his career. He’s a great bet to bounce back from his five TDs a year ago.
- We’ve included tight ends in the cheat sheet, and Rob Gronkowski is a solid bet to smash his projection of 8.5 TDs according to the projections. Most notably, numberFire has him finding the end zone a whopping 12.5 times.
- Jones had a down year in the TD department with just three in 2017. He’ll have to double that output to hit his total of six for 2018.
- Only seven WRs/TEs are projected to eclipse their TD betting lines by a consensus — Evans, Gronkowski, AJ Green, Odell Beckham, Devante Parker, Larry Fitzgerald, and Jarvis Landry.
Notes on the Under
- Tyreek Hill is almost certain to regress from his seven TD total, according to the projections. He rates to fall short of that line by an average of -1.46 TDs. Clay has him falling way short with just five scores.
- The same goes for team mate Travis Kelce. Both players will now be catching passes from Patrick Mahomes, who has just one NFL start to his name, and both are trending towards the under as a result.
- Michael Crabtree as projected to score 6.5 TDs despite average 8.3 during his three years in Oakland. However, he’s expected to be hurt by a move to a low-volume, low-powered offense in Baltimore.
- Meanwhile, Amari Cooper should see more red zone love with Crabtree gone, yet his projection remains relatively low at six TDs.