Bet the Prop

QB Prop Bet Cheat Sheets for TD Totals

Betting the lines on quarterback yardage prop bets can yield some juicy values, thanks to the fact that the position tends to be very stable and predictable.

Touchdowns? Not so much. These are high-variance events that are difficult to predict.

Still, QBs do get injured less than their counterparts at running back and wide receiver, and the pure volume of touches they handle generally cuts down on the high amount of variance, or luck, that’s involved.

Get out the Cheat Sheets

Let’s use our cheat sheets to see if we can spot any value in the TD prop bets for QBs.

These sheets compare the line being offered by against the season-long projections from three different fantasy football experts. Fantasy football has been the driving force behind some of the best analytics work in football, and they can give us a great baseline for player expectation.

Mike Clay works for ESPN and consistently provides some of the most accurate projections in football; his work is considered by many to be the gold standard in the industry. FF Today has been providing top-tier projections for years, while numberFire uses a proprietary analytics model to provide an unbiased set of projections.

How to read the table:

  • The O/U column is the line that has been set by
  • “Clay proj” are the projections for each player from Mike Clay.
  • The “Value” column is the difference between the line being offered and that rankers projection.
  • For example, Andy Dalton’s TD prop is set at 22.5 , and Clay projects him at 4 TDs. So the difference or “value” is +1.5, making the lean there the over. However, numberFire projects Dalton at 25.9 TDs yards, meaning they think he’ll beat his line by 3.43.
  • To account for the variations across the projections, the final “Average Value” column is the average difference from all the projections.
  • All the columns are sortable to make it easy to find the best values.
 O/UClay ProjectionsClay vs. BooksFF Today ProjFF Today ValuenumberFire ProjnumberFire ValueAvg Value
Aaron Rodgers33.5340.5362.537.694.192.39
Alex Smith2423-121-325.331.33-0.89
Andy Dalton22.5241.5241.525.933.432.14
Ben Roethlisberger2829127-129.741.740.58
Cam Newton2322-121-221.68-1.32-1.44
Carson Wentz30.530-0.525-5.527.81-2.69-2.9
Dak Prescott22.521-1.520-2.520.36-2.14-2.05
Derek Carr22.5241.5252.526.794.292.76
Deshaun Watson26.5270.524-2.530.584.080.69
Drew Brees26.5281.5281.534.618.113.7
Eli Manning22.5263.5241.527.444.943.31
Jared Goff2727026-131.444.441.15
Jimmy Garoppolo23.5240.523-0.526.192.690.9
Joe Flacco19.518-1.5200.519.890.39-0.2
Kirk Cousins25.5271.5271.527.932.431.81
Marcus Mariota21.5242.519-2.521.880.380.13
Matt Ryan24.5250.5250.527.833.331.44
Matthew Stafford26.5281.526-0.528.522.021.01
Philip Rivers26.5281.5292.529.683.182.39
Russel Wilson25.5271.5282.527.962.462.15
Tom Brady32.5330.5330.540.047.542.85

QB TD Takeaways

  • There’s not a ton of value here. The projections tend to be conservative, as TDs are difficult to predict.
  • However, numberFire is something of an exception. They’re much more bullish across the board and foresee a lot of QBs hitting the over.
  • Overall, Eli Manning looks like the best bet to beat his totals. All three projections concur, and Mike Clay has him beating his 22.5 TD line by 3.5.
  • We see Marcus Mariota causing some confusion, as Clay has the Titans QB easily surpassing his 21.5 total, while FF Today has him falling well short. Mariota is a prime bounce-back candidate in an offense led by Matt LaFleur, who helped turn the 2017 Rams into an offensive juggernaut.
  • No one projection is higher on any single player than numberFire is on Drew Brees. They see him beating is 26.5 TD total by 8.11. It’s easy to see why, as last year was the first time in 10 consecutive seasons that Brees fell short of 26.5 passing scores.
  • Deshaun Watson creates a bit of a rift, with FF Today putting him under his total by 2.5 TDs and numberFire putting him over by 4.08 scores. His yardage projection was also difficult to pin down.
  • At the other end of the spectrum, all three projections have Carson Wentz falling short of his expected 30.5 TDs. Last season, he scored 33 TDs in 13 games, a 40.6-TD pace.
  • Dak Prescott and Cam Newton are the only other players that are projected to hit the under by all three outlets.

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