We’re focusing on Super Bowl receiving props as we break down one of our official picks and tell you how to play Tyler Boyd’s yardage line.
Boyd has been relegated to a bit part in the Bengals offense in these playoffs, but his receiving prop hasn’t quite caught up.
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Super Bowl Receiving Props
Tyler Boyd Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ Bet365)
This is about an average line for Boyd this year, and it doesn’t reflect his more recent usage or the fact that almost everyone on the Bengals offense is healthy.
- Boyd’s receiving yards prop was set at 47.1 on average this year, but that’s inflated by some early season lines
- Over the back half of the year, his average line was exactly 42.5
- His average result this year is 44.8 yards, falling short of his line by 5.5% on average
- In the playoffs, he’s averaging 20.6 yards and has easily gone under his total in all three games
- In all, he’s gone under his closing line on receiving yards 58% of the time this year
Boyd is a capable receiver, but his talent pales in comparison to that of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and as the games get bigger and bigger, we’re starting to see Joe Burrow key in on his best players.
Boyd’s target share is down to 12.8% in the playoffs after receiving 18% of team targets in the regular season. He hasn’t commanded more than 20% of targets since Week 15.
While he may have one of the easier individual matchups on the field, I don’t think that’s sufficient to justify his line being this high in what is a touch matchup overall.
Rate the Rams
Keyed by Jalen Ramsey’s All Pro play, the Rams defense exceeded prop-market expectations this year by holding 61.7% of WRs they faced under their receiving yards line, including 6-4 to the under in these playoffs.
Meanwhile, they benefit from a massive mismatch in the trenches. Per PFF, the Bengals have the sixth-worst pass-blocking grade, while the Rams pass rush ranks number one in the league. The Bengals line has been even worse in the playoffs, allowing 12 sacks in three games.
They can’t afford to let Burrow get blown up. Cincy has been willing to let him drop back and chuck it 40 times when necessary this year, but that looks like recipe for disaster in this matchup. I think they’ll be running the ball as much as possible to keep Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and company from completely burying Burrow.
If this game gets out of hand, then this prop is probably in trouble, but the spread is currently just -4, giving hope for a tight game that allows Cincy to run the ball and grind the clock.
Conclusion
Boyd’s target share is down in the playoffs, and the Bengals could be leaning towards the run game more than usual, which means that Boyd’s line should not be set at seasonal averages.
But it’s the Super Bowl and people love betting overs, so his line remains a little inflated.
We think the line should be 37.5 and would play it down to 39.5.
