Sunday’s slate features eight games, and our best NBA prop bet of the bunch comes from the matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Washington Wizards.
We’re coming off another winning night after DeMarcus Cousins cashed our over early in the 4th. In all, I’ve posted a none-too-shabby 18-4 record for Bet the Prop, so give me a follow on Twitter to make sure you don’t miss out on the fun.
We look to stay hot tonight with a point prop on Karl-Anthony Towns, aka KAT.
Timberwolves Center Karl-Anthony Towns
Over 27.5 Points (-114)
Recent Form
Towns has been playing like a man who’s been given a second life since his car accident on February 23rd. He’s cleared 30 points in three straight games since:
- He scored 34 points on 13-18 shooting vs the Kings
- 37 on 12-19 vs the Hawks
- And a season-high 42 points on 15-29 shooting vs Indiana
Matchup
Tonight brings another excellent spot tonight versus the Washington Wizards.
Versus opposing Centers, the Wizards:
- Are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency (DEFF)
- Allow the ninth-most points per game (PPG)
- Let up eighth-most offensive rebounds per game (as a team, the Wizards permit fifth-most OREB per game)
- Surrender the highest field goal percentage (FG%)
- Let up third-highest three point percentage
Another big positive for his outlook is his matchup versus Wizards Center, Bobby Portis. He ranks 89th out of 94 PFs in defensive real plus-minus (DRPM), and if you count him as a C, he would rank 63rd out of 65.
The Wizards other interior defender at the PF position is Jeff Green, who is ranked 85th out of 95 PFs in DRPM.
I just don’t know how the Wizards are going to be able to slow down Towns in the paint. They could bring in Thomas Bryant off the bench but even then, he is ranked 31st out of 65 Cs in DRPM.
Pace
Washington plays at the eighth-fastest pace while, Minnesota plays at the 12th-fastest in the NBA.
The over/under is currently set at 241 — 13 points higher than the next-closest game, so oddsmakers are projecting points aplenty in this contest.
Conclusion
With Towns playing like a man with nothing to lose, and facing a great matchup versus the Wizards, another 30 point performance is in sight tonight.
I’d play this to -122.
