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NFL Player Props

Sterling Shepard’s Smash Spot and More Week 5 Player Prop Picks

The biggest problem with player props bets is that there are so many potential bets to make and just not enough time to make them.

The lines often don’t get released until the day before the games. That’s about the only downside, though, as player props provide some of the best value you can find in the NFL betting market.

Enter the Player Prop Tool, which not only provides you with a concise snapshot of all the available bets across multiple books, but also compares them to our player projections, exposing the best values on the board.

Bets with a rating of 10 on the Prop Tool are 82-46 (63 percent) on the year.

Meanwhile, here at Bet the Prop, we’re 102-69 (68 percent) between our article picks and Twitter picks.

Let’s dive into the Week 5 slate.

Giants WR Sterling Shepard

The pick: Over 55.5 Receiving Yards -115

I’m seeing this number at 68.5 yards at other books, so we’re going to attack this way-out-of-line line.

Is it possible that odds makers there are unaware that Shepard averages eight receptions for 78.5 yards with Evan Engram out of the lineup and 63.7 yards when Engram plays?

PS, Engram is out again this weekend.

Titans RB Derrick Henry

The pick: Under 60.5 Rushing Yards -125

Henry is stuck in a timeshare with Dion Lewis and has yet to hit 60 rushing yards on the year, topping out at 58 in Week 3.

The -5.5 spread in favor of the Titans suggests a good game script for Henry, but his ability to capitalize is questionable:

  • The Bills give up the 12th-fewest rushing yards, averaging 72.3 per game.
  •  Among backs with at least 30 rushes, Henry’s 3.0 yards per carry is the fourth-worst mark in the league.

Check out the rest of my Week 5 picks at The Action Network. 

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