There are consequences at Coors field for all visiting pitchers, and it’s an angle we’re going back to again in our look at the best K props for today.
Kevin Gausman is the latest starter to be put to the test in baseball’s most batter-friendly park, and we’re here to tell you why he’s a fade.
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Best K Props Today (9/6)
Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 Ks (-122 @ FanDual)
Note: We released this at +120 for our subscribers this morning but still like it at this price. Join in the link above if you’re a bettor who always wants the best price.
We’ll get to the powerful Coors effect in a moment, but it’s worth noting that Gausman hasn’t been lighting it up on the strikeout front himself either. He’s made nine starts since mid-July and has hit this number in just three of those.
One notable change from his excellent early-season form is a drop-off in spin rate on his most-effective Whiff/PutAway pitch, the Split Finger Fastball.
Up to July 15th, RHHs were hitting .132 off Gausman with a .180 wOBA on his splitter, but those numbers have since ballooned. We saw a bit of a bounce-back on his splitter spin rate in his last start, but that was still below his early-season rates.
Oddsmakers peg him for another tough outing today, with the Colorado Rockies implied to score a massive 5.9 runs.
The Coors Effect
Despite the general ineptness of the Colorado lineup, they’ve been a nightmare to face in the confines of Coors Field.
For K prop under bettors like us, however, it’s the dream.
- Just two of the last 24 visiting pitchers have hit this number at Coors
- They’re averaging 3.0 Ks/start with a median result of 3
- Going back to the start of June, all pitchers at Coors are 21-13 (61.8%) to the under against their closing line
- The average closing K line for pitchers at Coors this year is 4.9
- The average result is just 3.6, as they’re falling short of expectations by 27% on average
Conclusion
Gausman is going to have to buck a few trends to beat this line. Projections peg him at 4.74 Ks, and we like this down to -130.
