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PGA Championship Picks: Fade Phil?

After months of waiting, the PGA Championship finally tees off this week as golf’s first major of the year.

TPC Harding Park is the course golfers will be faced with starting on Thursday.

  • It’s a Par 70 playing around 7,250 yards
  • The greens are fairly large and the field will have to navigate just 47 bunkers

On the DraftKings Sportsbook, Joaquin Niemann (-118) is only a slight favorite over Phil Mickelson (-109), but I think it should be flipped. 

We’re 1-1 on PGA H2H picks since the restart after missing last week’s. Let’s get back in the win column for the first major of the year.

PGA Championship Picks: Tale of the Tape

So far in 2020, Niemann has been the better golfer Tee to Green, ranking inside the Top 20 in that category, while Mickelson can’t even crack the Top 70.

  • The young Chilean phenom is 6-4 this year in tournament finishes heads up against the elder lefty
  • If we expand back to include 2019, it’s even more domination for Niemann — over that time frame, he’s 15-8 against Mickelson

What Does the Simulator Say? 

The sim puts Niemann as a -150 favorite in this matchup which matches up with how these two have performed relative to one another over the past 18 months.

pga championship picks

I don’t see a situation where this line drops very far because of the brand name recognition that Mickelson has, but I’d play Niemann down to -125 to lock in this matchup. 

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