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Pebble Beach Pro Am Best Bets: Jason Day v Tommy Fleetwood

The PGA Tour makes its way to California this week, and we’re breaking down Pebble Beach Pro Am Best Bets with a head to head matchup.

Unlike last week’s cross-sport PGA prop bet, we’re sticking solely to the links.

Jason Day and Tommy Fleetwood are two of the marquee names in the field, and they also happens to be one of the matchups on offer this week.

  Odds (Implied Probability) Odds (Implied Probability)
Jason Day -160 (61.5%) -150 (60%)
Tommy Fleetwood +140 (41.7%) +130 (43.5)

Recent Form

Since missing the cut at the US Open all the way back in June, Day has missed one cut out of his dozen starts.

  • In those made cuts, he hasn’t finished worse than 24th place and has three top-10 finishes
  • Day’s last two events have resulted in a 13th-place finish at the Tournament of Champions and a fifth-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open
  • He’s been known to score well without hitting a ton of greens, but Day hit below 70% of his greens at the Farmers

Fleetwood is on a streak of 14 straight made cuts with six top-tens during that stretch, which dates back to the first week in July. His putter has let him down a bit to start the season. Fleetwood has hit over 75% of his greens in regulation in his first two starts of 2019 but has just a 16th and a 42nd place result to show for it.

Course History

One advantage Day has is that Fleetwood has never played this event before. Since 2010, Day is 6-of-7 in made cuts and has four finishes inside of the top six.

In fact, 15 of his 27 rounds at this event have been in the 60s.

Previous Matchups

Over the past year, Fleetwood and Day have played the same course on the same day on 46 occasions. Fleetwood has the advantage in those matchups going 22-21-3, per Fantasy National.

This isn’t just a round-by-round bet, though; it’s for the entire tournament. The Englishman has the advantage there, as well. Day has only beat Fleetwood’s finish position in five of the 13 tournaments they’ve both played in.

The Pick

Tommy Fleetwood (+140)

To some extent, I get why the books are favoring Day here. He’s proven he can get it around at this event. However, it’s much closer to a coin flip than it is to a 60-40 proposition, giving us more than fair value.

Getting plus odds with a guy like Tommy Fleetwood is an auto-bet for me.

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