- Our Best MLB strikeout props for Friday (7.24) come from the late matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros
- We’ll tell you how to play the line of O/U 3.5 Ks for Marcos Gonzales
- Gonzales is getting the Opening Day assignment for the Mariners for the second-straight year
We handed out a full card of our best MLB strikeout props in our community chat this morning, and this Gonzales line was the first to jump off the page, so we wanted to make sure to give you a heads up.
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Last night’s K Prop was voided by rain, so let’s get our first official W on the board tonight.
Mariners LHP Marco Gonzales
Under 3.5 Ks (-130 @ Prop Builder)
Note: This line has moved since we posted it at opening this morning. The best current play we see is U3 Ks, +110 at Bovada. Join us with the instructions below to ensure you get alerts on the best prices.
Even without the aid of garbage cans, the Houston Astros are still going to be a major problem for opposing pitchers. Over the last three seasons, they’ve ranked:
- 1st in kRate in 2019 (18.6%)
- 2nd in 2018 (19.6%)
- 1st in 2017 (17.5%)
Over their last 150 games, Houston is striking out a paltry 15.6% of the time, and they’ve certainly faced better pitchers than Gonzales in that stretch. They feast on lefties, mashing a .373 wOBA and .221 ISO.
The Mariners Opening Day starter sports a 17.7% kRate over his last 20 starts, displaying a decline in performance over most of last year.
- We don’t like to put a lot of weight in BvP, but it’s notable that the Astros have hit .371 against Gonzales
- They recorded 0 Ks vs Gonzales in their last matchup
- He’s also pitching on the road in Minute Maid Park, baseball’s 7th-least friendliest for opposing pitchers
Add in a +240 ML price on the overmatched Mariners, and you have the recipe for a low-efficiency outing with the potential for an early hook.
I’d play U3.5 to -140 and U3 to -105.
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