Our best Broncos Raiders props come from the second game at tonight's double-header, which, let's face it, should be the norm every week.
The Broncos bring a re-charged defense to Oakland under new head coach Vic Fangio and are field-goal favorites over the Raiders, who've been dealing with nothing but distractions all summer.
We're going to break down a particularly tempting line for rookie Josh Jacobs, and our other Broncos Raider prop comes from a running back on the other side -- sophomore Royce Freeman.
We've also lined up our best Texans Saints props for the early game here.
It was a 12-6 on opening weekend, including 3-0 on this WR card, making for a profitable opening weekend. We'll continue to give out free picks all season, but if you want the full slate, you should really join us!
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs
Under 79.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (+100)
I did a double-take when I saw this line, followed by a triple take when I saw that it was the over that was juiced to -130.
If you watched the games or tracked box scores this weekend, you should already be extremely wary of such a high line for a rookie. We got a hard lesson when we bet on a rookie to outproduce Aaron Jones in the season opener, and it was mostly the same story for the rest of the rookie crop this weekend:
|PLAYER||Rush Att||Rush Yds||Targets||Rec Yds||Total Opp||Total Yds|
Only one rookie RB eclipsed even 50 total yards in their first game this weekend, and Devin Singletary was lucky to do so on just 10 total opportunities (rush att + targets). Even if we take out the five guys with the lowest totals, rookie backs averaged 9.8 opportunities and 45 combined yards, nowhere near the line that oddsmakers are projecting from Jacobs.
Granted, Jacobs is the starter in Oakland, but his ability to leverage that role is highly questionable.
Put it this way -- Jacobs averaged 68.8 total yards per game for powerhouse Alabama during his college career. Now he's going to beat that mark by 15.5% in the pros? In his first game? Against a top-five defense? As an underdog?
"Backup" Jalen Richard had the seventh-most RB targets last year with 81 -- more than Todd Gurley and more than David Johnson. He's not suddenly just going away, especially not for a guy who averaged 1.6 receptions in college. Don't be surprised to see Richard make this close to an even split in timeshare, especially in Jacobs' first game.
Oh, and RB rushing + receiving props are historically hitting the under at a rate of over 60%.
I'd set this line in the mid-60s, and I think that's optimistic. If this line moves, and it surely will, I'd pay as much as -135.
Broncos RB Royce Freeman
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