Nyheim Hines props for tonight have jumped the shark — here’s why the Colts RB makes a great sell-high for Colts Broncos on TNF.
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Under 67.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115 MGM & DraftKings)
Line Notes: Would play to U65.5 yards.
Jonathan Taylor will miss this one with what’s believed to be a low-ankle sprain, leaving Hines, Deon Jackson, and practice squad call-up Phillip Lindsay to man the Indy backfield.
When a total-yardage line pushes 70 yards like this, it needs to be backed by the kind of volume usually reserved for work horse, three-down running backs.
Is Nyheim Hines that guy? Well this week he’s lined like it, with an O/U matching guys who we know are that guy:
- Najee Harris: 69.5 Rush&Rec Yards
- Ezekiel Elliott: 61.5
- James Conner: 66.5
One of these things is not like the other.
Does Hines belong in this group? He weighs 196 pounds. The next-smallest guy in this group is Elliott, who outweighs Hines by 32 pounds. All of these RBs are also established starters who will play all three downs.
Sure, without Taylor, Hines will be more involved than he has been, but sub-200-pound RBs tend not to get huge workloads in the NFL, and the Colts also activated Phillip Lindsay. He knows this offense well and is ready to go.
Lindsay’s Rushing Attempts line is currently sitting at 10.5, so he’s likely to be worked into the offense quite a bit, particularly if you believe in the #RevengeGame narrative, as Lindsay returns to his hometown to face his old team. Either way, he’ll be a factor.
Bad Broncos Matchup
Hines will need to do most of his damage via the passing game, and that’s certainly a possibility, but the Broncos defense is no pushover in that department. They’ve allowed the 9th-fewest receiving yards to RBs, and so far we’ve seen teams target their WRs and TEs at a higher rate when they face the Broncos.
How passing offenses have attacked the #BroncosCountry defense
WRs 62% Target Share (16th-highest)
TEs 24% (9th)
RBs 14% (30th)#TNF
— Bet the Prop (@bettheprop) October 6, 2022
Even without Taylor, the Colts have plenty of other weapons to get the ball to — studs like Michael Pittman, athletic freaks like Mo Alie-Cox, and a capable veteran in Lindsay.
There’s no need to force workhorse volume to Hines here.