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NFL Season Opener Prop Bet Analysis: Lamar Jackson’s Revenge

NFL Season Kickoff: Ravens vs. Chiefs – Lamar Jackson Faces Tough Chiefs Defense

Tonight’s season opener features the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in a highly anticipated rematch of the AFC Title Game. Last January, the Chiefs upset the Ravens 17-10 as 4.5-point underdogs in Baltimore. Now, the rematch takes place in Kansas City.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens faced heavy criticism following that loss for their game plan and execution, with many pointing to the team’s abandonment of their run-first identity. Despite Lamar’s hesitance to use his legs, he still managed to carry the ball 8 times for 54 yards.

Lamar enters the season trimmed down by 10-15 pounds, aiming to “get his maximum speed and agility back.” The Ravens also bolstered their offense by adding running back juggernaut Derrick Henry, which could give Lamar more space to run on the outside.

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The Chiefs’ defense allowed the most QB rushes per game last season, making them vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks like Lamar. Here are the key trends:

  • Chiefs allowed 5.6 QB rushes per game in 2023, 32% above the league median of 4.2/game.
  • Lamar Jackson exceeded this rushing line in the final 6 games of last season when games became critical.

With revenge on his mind and facing the defense that allowed the most QB rushes last season, expect a fast and confident Lamar to make big plays on the ground.

Prop Bet: Lamar Jackson Over 14.5 Longest Rush (-109) at Bet Rivers and Sugar House

[We like it to -125 but would pass on 15.5]

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