We have an excellent angle on an NBA prop for tonight’s six-game slate. We’ll be targeting a star scorer in a late-night matchup as one of our favorite NBA props for Tuesday night’s action.
The New Orleans Pelicans are on the road to face the Golden State Warriors — tipoff is at 10:00 ET. This is a big-time national TV spot on TNT, as both teams fight for seeding in the Western Conference playoff race. Golden State currently occupies the 7-seed, while New Orleans is just a half-game behind in 8th, so this game will likely have significant playoff implications.
Brandon Ingram has been on a tear lately. However, he’s taken advantage of an incredibly weak schedule. The Warriors have one of the NBA’s best defenses when they’re at home, so it could be a rough go for BI in this matchup.
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NBA Props for Tuesday (3/28)
Brandon Ingram Under 27.5 Points (-125 @ BetMGM)
Brandon Ingram is scoring 30.0 points per game over his last six contests, so you may be nervous about fading the all-star forward tonight. But, upon a closer look, his competition in these six games has been subpar, and that’s if we’re being generous.
Five of Ingram’s last six games have come against the Rockets, Spurs, Hornets, and Trail Blazers. These squads are a combined 17-38 in March and are barely trotting out NBA-quality lineups.
The Warriors, on the other hand, are desperately trying to win games. At 30-8, the Dubs are the fourth-best home team in the league this season. Defensively, their 109.8 defensive rating at the Chase Center is the third-best of any team at home this season. In a game where the Pels’ offense could struggle to put up points, it will certainly be tough for Ingram to drop 30-plus points.
Matchup
Since the all-star break, Golden State has keyed in on high-volume guards and wings. And, that should continue at home against Ingram this evening. Let’s take a look at how these first-option perimeter scorers have fared against the Warriors:
- Anthony Edwards: 12 PTS, 5/19 FG
- Damian Lillard: 25 PTS, 9/21 FG
- Kawhi Leonard: 21 PTS, 8/12 FG
- Brandon Ingram: 17 PTS, 6/16 FG
- Jrue Holiday: 18 PTS, 7/22 FG
- Devin Booker: 32 PTS, 12/20 FG
- Anthony Edwards: 13 PTS, 5/14 FG
Ingram only scored 17 points in 38 minutes in San Francisco earlier this month. And, only Devin Booker was able to reach his season-long scoring average out of this group.
In home games, only the Celtics and Cavaliers have been better than the Warriors defensively since February 1st. I’m expecting the reigning champs to be dialed in for a crucial game tonight.
Struggles in Tough Matchups?
The former Laker has played 13 games against teams with a winning record this season. He’s remained under this line in 10 of these 13 games, averaging just 22.0 PPG on 45.0 FG%.
Additionally, this prop has been a success in 16 of Ingram’s 25 games without Zion Williamson and with CJ McCollum. If we remove games against the NBA’s bottom-five defenses, this becomes a 14-of-19 hit rate where Ingram averaged just 23.4 PPG.
Conclusion
Look for Golden State to send double teams at Ingram and make it tough for New Orleans’ top dog to get going. The Warriors have been an elite defensive team at home, and BI has been slowed down by competitive teams this season.
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